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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Goose94 who wrote (33123)8/23/2017 6:14:30 PM
From: Goose94Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 202448
 
Zinc:

Zinc in particular has looked extremely strong and you can clearly see the week's breakout on the chart below. The metal most commonly used as a galvanizing agent now appears to have successfully consolidated its 2016 run, which saw it claim the status of the best performing metal last year (with the exception of iron ore).

As of its close on Friday, the zinc price is up 115% from its January 2016 low of $1,440/t.


Figure 2: Weekly zinc price candlestick chart, as of Friday, 18th of August, 2017. Source: Thomson Eikon


Zinc's run has all the hallmarks of a supply (or lack thereof) driven move, which tend to be swift and devoid of major pullbacks or periods of choppiness.

This is supported by the hard data, which shows that since 2012, we've seen over 1 million tonnes (Mt) of shuttered production in a 13Mt market*1. Glencore alone (the world's largest zinc producer) cut its zinc production by 24% in 2016, a year which also saw the closing of two of the world’s major zinc mines in Century (Australia) and Lisheen (Ireland).

We have been hearing of potential tightness in the zinc market for a while now, only to see "hidden" supply (likely of Chinese origin) dumped on the market whenever prices rallied.

However, this dynamic seems to have completely changed and Chinese figures now show the country is dealing with a significant mined deficit caused by declining production from the countries domestic mines.

Last week’s news that the Chinese government ordered a shutdown of all the lead and zinc mines in the Hunan province's Huayuan county (a major zinc producing region) suggests that the countries zinc deficit is only likely to grow in the near to mid-term, further adding to the already strong tailwinds currently affecting the zinc price.

Sam Broom