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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (19792)	8/25/2017 2:50:47 PM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations Recommended By roguedolphin The Ox Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Ox, the charts look very bearish to me....... everything from the SPX, SMH, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, FB, RUT below 200 dma, Dow Trans.. below 200 dma USD is getting crushed EUR up at 1.19.......... we have 3% inflation coming and it's going to come in and hit stock prices hard......... you just watch and see in my honest opinion. Everything begins with the global currency flows..... and with interest rate directions........ Rob Arnott, who is the co founder and COO of Research affiliates in Newport Beach ..... he manages $184 billion..... he's also one of the pioneers of "smart beta" investing..... he is negative on stocks. He points out on Bloomberg today that US stocks are expensive .. He points out that the Shiller P/E ratio or cyclically adjusted P/E ratio. He is looking at it using a 10 year smoothing period... which is what all the Big Global Equity and Asset managers do. At an economic peak the P/E will seem lower than it is and at a bottom the P/E will seem higher than it is. The highest P/E ratio of the past 50 years was in mid 2009. what a terrible time to sell Today the Shiller P/E is 31. the only 2 times in history it has been higher was in 1929 and the peak of the 2000 tech bubble plus or minus 1 year. it does not mean a horrific bear market... it does mean that returns going forward 3,5, and 8 years are going to be lousy.... very low... the value stocks in the US are 24 times earnings. emerging market stocks have a P/E of 9 today......... 18 months ago emerging market stocks were at the levels we were at back at 666 on March 6th 2009. .