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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick Slemmer who wrote (406)	1/8/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: wendell morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

STN....rally over bad news..watch that chart

To: Rick Slemmer who wrote (406)	1/8/1998 4:32:00 PM
From: Dan Ross	Respond to of 18691

You won't find any info on roytalty arrangements.....It is very much top secret info......Any mention or discussion of the actual contract is subject to SEVERE reprucussions..... My sources within telecom indicate the following royalty rates 2% on infrastructure 2-3% on handset Some people have said up to 6%....IMHO this is B.S....No way would QCOM be able to license their product out at that rate....the gov't wouldn't allow it.....I am very comfortable with these rates...they are conservative and allow me to make good approximations in EPS from royalties... In '96, w/out royalties, QCOM would make a loss....Just some info.... The royalties, from what I have heard, are calculated on the avg. selling price in the local currency.....So if the won depreciates 20% QCOM must take a 20% hit in royalties....Korea is the largest CDMA market in the world currently as they were very quick to deploy the technology....It should be noted that CDMA systems are being deployed very quickly worldwide and the next generation systems will be W-CDMA .....GSM...TDMA are dead for next generation products....CDMA is inherently better for wireless telephony..... The big question now is whether or not the Europeans will choose frequency channels in that are 1.25 Mhz wide, the current IS-95 standard, or will they back ERICY's W-CDMA with 5Mhz channels....ERICY (Ericsson) does not have an IS-95 license....They are the only major telecom company without one.....To be backwards compatible, companies must choose the 1.25 Mhz offering.....IMHO, backwards compatibility is the key for any next generation technology to succeed..... Sorry for babbling on and on... Dan Ross