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To: Esteban who wrote (32496)1/8/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: j g cordes  Respond to of 58727
 
Esteban "Still disagree.?" YES

You write.. "I'm saying decide beforehand how much to trade based on the probable loss you will incure at the point you are proven wrong. If there is not a drastic change in the technicals that prove you wrong before that predetermined point, hold."

Can't be done. There is no way that that technicals can reliably protect a loss from growing. Look at yesterday, for example. A reversal by all accounts on the chart.. up to near dead even from being way down. Looking at the chart at close last night this morning should have been up on follow through... fat chance and calls got squashed.

The safest and surest way to MAKE money is to sell immediately approaching a loss. Here's another way to look at it.

Plan A. The cost (from my broker, don't know abou others) to exit a 5,000.00 position would be 25.00 + 1/2% or about $ 50.00 to get out.

Plan B. The position goes below my buy in, lets say a 1/8 point (not very much right), now I'm down about $ 625.00 !! AND I still have to pay the exit cost of the trade, another $ 45.00... total loss for waiting to let it sink an 1/8th below where I bought 10 contracts for 5k would be $ 670.00 instead of $ 50 bucks.

For me to make that back I'd have to invest the remaining $ 4330. and get at least 1/4 point less commissions to bring me back even.

Moral of the example, sell today to fight again another day. <g>

Jim