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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1192)	1/8/1998 3:43:00 PM
From: DWB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5390

Maurice, take it as a given that I don't think Ericsson needs to be rescued..., but, if I'm reading your responses correctly, most of the points we are debating are at best ambiguous relating to common knowledge on third generation systems. I don't agree with a number of your contentions, like wideband systems being in direct competition with GSM/CDMAone, or Ericsson still being in the process of talking themselves into building a 3G system, but we can debate those seperately if you like. The problem with "guilt by perceived historical similarity" is it's accuracy is dependant on how true one's perceptions are. In your example, proof of performance during a sale is required once a system is being sold. Currently Ericsson is developing the systems, and therefore can't be held to that standard. You cannot be asked for performance related proofs until an item exists. Otherwise people could have tarred and feathered the Wright Brothers before their tests at Kitty Hawk every time they said they were building a flying machine. In that case, to claim that they couldn't do it would have been a case of "guilt by perceived historical similarity" (we've never built one before, so we can't in the future either), which is rubbish. The accusers "perception" would have been faulty. The thing that started all of this talk was Tom's definition of vaporware, RE: Ericsson's 3rd gen system. I'll pull the quote directly from that post: Defn: "vaporware" - When companies pre-announce software or technology that they don't have in hopes of maintaining an installed base and stopping current customers from switching to technologies or software that is available elsewhere. I would think that after reading your last post that even you would agree that there is no reason for Ericsson to "stop current customers from switching to technologies or software that is available elsewhere", since we've agreed that there are no currently available 3G systems for them to switch to, or any GSM/CDMAone systems that can provide similar capabilities. If, as I see it, 3G and current voice systems won't compete directly, then there is nothing in Ericsson's 3G claims to keep operators from switching to other voice systems, if voice is all they intend to provide. DWB