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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anant Kamath who wrote (13089)	1/8/1998 4:02:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Anant, Several Biotechs showed weakness near the close yesterday and although the stocks are supposed to rise and fall on their own merits, the sector has been moving as a group somewhat in the past several weeks, on no news. LGND presents at H&Q next week and there is quite a bit of good news coming. The revised numbers did seem to be bring in some institutional buying, but then the price began to drift lower on small retail sells. In the past couple of years there has been a strong January effect,, but one hasn't materialized yet this year. However, it looks like a bit more patience is required. LGND is moving toward profitability faster than anyone predicted, and its programs are moving forward on a broad front. When some of the clinical news begins to come out the price should be ready to move.

To: Anant Kamath who wrote (13089)	1/8/1998 4:42:00 PM
From: Andrew H	Respond to of 32384

Anant, LGND is less "sexy" than many other biotechs. By that I mean that their products which are scheduled for NDA in the next year or so don't have indications for very large markets, at least for their initial approvals (KS, CTCL, APL). However, if one looks a bit further, one can see indications for breast cancer, prostate cancer, diabetes and psoriasis, SERMs, etc. If one looks even further, one sees the potentially the most productive pipeline among perhaps ALL the biotechs. And a research program which appears to be breaking new ground almost monthly and seems to be the envy of the Large pharms. I have come to the conclusion that LGND is not a stock to buy if one is interested in short term gains, although several on the board have spoken about a trading range where one can safely buy from 11-13 and sell around 15. LGND's pipeline and research program is really like money in the bank. There is no question that over time, it will produce a large number of profitable drugs. However, this will be a long and slow, altho inevitable process. As Henry said, they are gearing up for profitability much more quickly than expected. Unfortunately the Street is not very forward looking and fails to see the pipeline and research program as money in the bank. Who can say when they will finally get the picture. I have given up trying to predict LGND's short term price movement. I think there will be trading opportunities for at least the next year, but then one might miss a permanent mover higher when it comes. LGND will clearly be a success and a 5-10 bagger, but it will take time and patience.