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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TATRADER who wrote (431)	1/8/1998 6:35:00 PM
From: Michael Berkel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Mark, you're actually the only person on this thread who were mentioning shorting a driller or oilfield service stock. Now that oilprices are rapidly declining, these stocks have been beaten down sometimes more than 50%. While everyone on this thread was chatting about AMZN and YHOO and CTXS, the real money could have been made in the meantime by shorting the oil sector stocks. Most companies are now beginning to trade in the single p/e digits on fat 1998 earnings forecasts. Key question to me is: Should one buy when there is blood running in the street? Or short it even further? For example: CDG is at 40 and still 20 points off it's 52 weeks low. This sector has allready gone beyond a correction and is now entering a real bear market situation. Would you have the guts to short at these levels or is there a too great risk for a (dead cat) bounce? Another remarkable thing is that analysts haven't downgraded these companies yet. It all depends on the direction of the oilprice indeed. If futures suddenly go up, the shorts will be squeezed. Like to hear some comments, Michael B.