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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter V who wrote (433)	1/8/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: Dan Ross	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

The players are as follows Software people Amati & Aware....Amati was bought by Texas Instruments two months ago....AMTX was the symbol...not sure if deal is done yet.... AWRE (Aware) - DWMT line code...also used in some cable modems.... Hardware....All of the major telecom companies have joint ventures.....NT, LU, SIEMENS, etc....THEY ARE NOT THE DEVELOPERS OF TE Technology...Their key is that they have the STRONG ties with the RBOC's.....They will focus on the central office sales and line cards within the switches they sell the RBOC's...In doing this you won't need line card boxes, stacks of modems, etc.....These other forms take up a HUGE amount of space that is very precious for an RBOC..... A company in Austin, Tx. (can't remember right now) will go public later this year or early next year probably...nortel bought a nice chunk of the company last summer.... They are licensing their pooling technology to all the hardware vendors.... POOLING...what is that? It works the same way your analog modems work in that you can oversubscribe 10 to 1....Currently with adsl you must have another modem at the other end for anything to work....a 1 to 1 relationship....YOU WOULD NEED TONS OF SHELF SPACE FOR 10,000 users.....Where would you put all the line cards or modems??? Surely not in a central office.....It would be cost prohibitive to....Through pooling you can run 10 modems on 1 and the modem at the CO (central office) is only utilized when needed....remember you aren't downloading all the time..... Westell has a BIG jt venture with TI...they were going to buy AMTX but TI snatched them from under their nose....WSTL has strong ties with RBOCs but I don't believe in management.... My pick for the summer was ORCTF...Orckit communications......They are growing at a rapid pace and are more internationally focused than other companies in the industry...they are making a good amount of sales with HDSL products...Take a look at them ....the stock has made me a ton of money but is NOT A BARGAIN at these levels...the stock is reasonably priced but if the market goes to hell I will buy more of the stock.... THEY ARE MY ADSL PICK OF THE YEAR.... TXN would be the next best pick IMHO....A great company with over 40% of revenues coming from DSP technology where they are the market leader....they have a competitive edge....DSP's incidentally are an essential item in next generation technologies....CDMA phones, ADSL, etc...you need the DSP to remove the noise interference....TI should be a HUGE beneficiary from this trend.....Their headquarters has been expanded tremendously in Dallas....new fitness facility, more offices.....oh, and new manufacturing facilities...a Jt venture with Fujitsu down the road too..... Take care Dan Ross