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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Herm who wrote (6342)	1/8/1998 6:26:00 PM
From: Douglas Webb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14162

CREAF is based in Singapore, and from what I've read here on SI their market isn't being hurt as bad as, say, South Korea. But even so, a currency devaluation in Singapore would be good for CREAF, since most of it's revenue is in US dollars, most of it's cash is in US dollars, and most of it's expenses are in Singapore dollars. Box makers didn't have a very good Christmas, it seems, and may be ordering fewer components from CREAF. But, most of CREAF's sales are direct to consumers, not to OEMs. If people are buying fewer systems, they're more likely to upgrade the systems they own, and this is where CREAF's products tend to be sold. So this could be a good sign; only time will tell. Merril Lynch owns a great deal of CREAF; enough to manipulate it's price. They downgraded CREAF in December during that big drop, then upgraded it again in late Dec. Now CREAF is their #1 asian stock pick, on a list you can get if you have an account with them. CREAF has great fundamentals, and there's a good chance that these large price swings are due to manipulation by major owners. Doug.

To: Herm who wrote (6342)	1/8/1998 9:36:00 PM
From: Hunt	Respond to of 14162

Herm, I think you are right about them being dragged down with the Asian flu. In regards to the American cash on hand it is actually a fairly smart business plan for them. First, most of their sales are in the USA, second, they are buying American companies with that cash(no debt and no dilution of earnings using stock) and third and most important that cash is increasing in value because the currency values in Singapore and Asia are falling, so the production is actually costing them less in dollar terms.

To: Herm who wrote (6342)	1/10/1998 11:04:00 AM
From: Douglas Webb	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 14162

Hey! I've got a great new tool for all of you! Have you ever heard of Three Line Break charts? Probably not, unless you've worked with Japanese traders, or have read Beyond Candlesticks, by Steve Nison. Three Line Break charts are used in Japan for identifying major trend reversals, and for giving buy and sell signals soon after the trend has reversed. They can be adjusted to be more or less sensitive to price movements, which is handy for fine tuning them to a particular stock's volatility. I looked at both CREAF and VVUS charts for the past 90 sessions using a Three Line Break with High Sensitivity, and if you obeyed all the signals and played the trends in both directions, you could have made a great profit since October, rather than taking heavy losses, like most of us have. I'm really, really sorry that I didn't write the code to display these charts a few months ago, like I had planned. I have lost thousands of dollars in CREAF, both realized and unrealized. If I had liquidated longs and sold short on TLB sell signals, and covered and gone long on TLB buy signals, I would have earned over $14/share traded since October. Depressing, but it's encouraging that the chart works so well. So, check it out at webbindustries.com Doug.

To: Herm who wrote (6342)	1/12/1998 1:01:00 AM
From: Douglas Webb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14162

Important notice about my Three Line Break chart: I've updated the code somewhat, both to correct small errors and to indicate buy/sell points. Lines are drawn at the expected buy/sell prices, which may be opening prices or intra-day prices. It's assumed that each night you would look at the chart to determine the trigger price for the next signal, and place an appropriate stop order. There's also a history shown beneath the chart which shows the results of following this trading method, given certain assumptions (which are stated). If anyone notices any discrepancies in this history (like signals outside the day's trading range) please let me know so I can fix it. Here's the link, in case you haven't bookmarked it yet: webbindustries.com Doug.