Voter Registration Statistics update (Dems in mass doodoo)
self | 9/17/2017 | LS
Posted on 9/17/2017, 8:27:14 PM by LS
freerepublic.com
Updated voter registration stats.
*These are all comparing November to the most current available---usually it's September. FL is up to date to the day. PA's last report was in May.
*The numbers represent NET gains or losses. In many cases, thought not all, both parties lost members (though indies have not gained, indicating voter roll purges, elimination of the dead & those who moved). In AZ and DE there were absolute gains.
*Party registration is not available for some key states: WI, MI, VA, TX, and MN. This makes it impossible to evaluate the trends with absolute certainty, but . . . as you see, it's pretty close to absolute.
AZ Rs net +11,314 since Nov. Both parties saw solid gains. Rs gained 24,919! So much for AZ "going blue."
CO D net +20. That's right, 20. Here's the bad news: since 2015, CO went from R+5 to D+1, but this is the first month it has flattened out, so maybe CO is ready to move back red a little.
DE Ds net +365 Both parties saw absolute gains.
FL Rs net +55,498 This is extremely important: both parties were down, but Ds have lost 80,000 off their rolls since November, and Rs have gained EVERY single month, averaging a net gain of about 6,000 per month. At this rate, FL will be red by 2020.
IA Rs net +14,363 Here, again, Rs have gained every month.
ME Rs net +1,201 It's not a lot, but Trump lost ME by 23,000 votes. By election time 2020, this would more than swing that.
NC Rs +60,918 Like FL, NC has shown a steadily widening gap since November and another state where Ds have lost 80,000 off their rolls in nine months.
NH Rs net +6,511 Another state where this almost certainly assures a Trump win. He lost NH by 2,700 votes (and we now know a lot of that was fraud.)
NJ Rs net +22,351 This was a shocker. Rs gained absolutely 287 voters while Ds lost 22,065. It's not a big enough trend to flip the state . . . yet.
NM Rs net +19,777 Another surprise. Rs gained about 2,000 just from two months ago. A very doable flip in 2020.
NV Rs net +19,799 Still another state where month by month Rs cut into the D voter advantage.
PA Rs net +101,000 This is old data from May, but it's still fun to report it.
In short, the Ds had only ONE state (DE) trending their way while CO, despite a net advantage, represents a serious downward trend for Ds from the previous year. Again, without MI, WI, VA, and TX especially, we can't say with total certainty, but as of now, if the election were held today, Trump would have about 320 electoral votes with NH and ME likely flipping, NM and NV being extremely close and expanding his lead bigly in FL, IA, AZ, and PA.
In NN, ME, NV and FL, if current trends continue, these states would again be Republican states in 2020. Wait, did you notice something? AZ, NM, NV, FL are heavily Hispanic states . . . yet trending R? |
