To: JT who wrote (11426 ) 1/9/1998 11:58:00 AM From: The Phoenix Respond to of 77400
Yu, Thanks for the URL. It was informative even though most of it was opinion. We should note that the comment... Even the dominant and always profitable Cisco felt the pinch of slow international sales, and its stock dipped temporarily as a result. ...is accurate although if you recall the stock price was hurt on the EXPECTATION of what these slow regions would do to earnings. In the end Cisco made all their targets which is why the stock is still trading near the all time high. Other networkers did not. This, to me, translates into increased market share for Cisco and increased domimance. Anther assertion in the article is that privately owned, competitively oriented communications businesses worldwide will delay roll out of infrastructure due to currency and other economic ails. I don't profess to be an expert here, but I will say if these organizations do this it will be suicide as competitors such at AT&T, BT, WorldCom, Sprint and others do indeed deploy internationally. If these foreign carriers are not aggressive in deployment of their nets, then they will lose the race. So, IMHO I think that infrastrucuture will go in, worldwide, to spite any global currency crisis. True, the deployment may be reduced somewhat, but if the international carriers don't deploy domestic carriers will. In the end - revenue generation for networkers will still grow through 1998 markedly. Anyway Yu, I think you're echoing my original comment which is this: Those that are shorting or at least down playing this stock should make it clear that it's either the sector they're shorting - which I can accept to a degree since, as I said, I'm no macroeconomic expert. However, if it's Cisco (which some have been "trashing") then I think these folks owe it to us to tell us why they feel Cisco itself will not make targets this year - regardless of macro issues. Would you agree? Gary