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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Esteban who wrote (10295)	1/9/1998 8:21:00 AM
From: ivan solotaroff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 79230

ORCL Esteban, Not that you asked me or nothing, but: I disagree with your feeling that ORCL came close to signaling yesterday. The "EB," as Doug had to point out to me, does not stand for exhaustion bounce, it stands for exhaustion bottom. That can only occur when the last sellers have left the picture, and the new low is hit with a blowoff volume that is signaling their FINAL exit. That FINALITY is the ONLY reason why the PGDCEB is a full-proof strategy. Otherwise, it would just be a good shot in the dark. ORCL, to me, is a classic falling knife: I wouldn't dream of touching it (except for a one-day MEEP play, which it may be heading for, again) until it hit that flatbottom that PGDCEBs seem always to form, then signals. One thing I've noticed about volume: The signal day in essence forms the right half of an accordion-like shape on the volume chart: Look at the gap days: Almost always you'll see super-high volume, followed by slightly lower, slightly lower, slightly lower, then the leveling off. It can take a few weeks, but eventually, the leveling will be accompanied by a similar flatness in price. Then comes the right half of the accordion: The high volume of the signal day is the first one (never equal, of course, to the huge volume of the gap day, but there probably is some proportional relationship), and it's generally followed by a few days of increasing volume, leveling off at a top (volume, thus, is again the signal to follow for an exit strategy, particularly if you hit a two- or three-day plateau that will show up negative on the RSI line), then decreasing in volume on the way down. What gives me most courage in the case of OXHP is that the volume is dropping. Because of that, I can almost say that I know that I will profit. Too bad, of course, that they had to come out and announce a "major move" to turn the company around (a new CEO, sure, that'll solve the problem); I hate it when news gets in the way of my goddamn TA. Blah, blah, blah. Ivan