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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (20132)	10/13/2017 7:57:48 PM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 33421

Elroy, why do you think Bitcoin cash is just sitting there are $300 and not really moving I'm no expert, but I would think one of the two coins (Bitcoin or Bitcoin Cash) will win the battle, and the other will eventually become worthless. One of the appealing things about Bitcoin is that the supply is limited. Governments can just print more fiat, with Bitcoin the eventual supply is limited to 21 million coins. The fork which created Bitcoin Cash at ~$400 when Bitcoin was $2,500 instantly created ~15% dilution in crypto (if you only look at those two coins). That's (sort of) like governments printing more money. In the long run, it's bad for the crypto universe. There are two more forks coming down the pike now. In late October there is supposed to be a new fork which creates Bitcoin Gold. Then in mid-November there is a fork to create another Bitcoin, I can't remember the name of that one. The second fork is the more serious one. Both of these forks are based on some technological change in the blockchain coding, and different groups can't agree to adopt the change, so once some percentage of them adopt it the new blockchain becomes different from the legacy blockchain. I think based on the creation of Bitcoin Cash on Aug 1st ($8 billion created out of nowhere, followed by regular Bitcoin moving from $2,500 up to now $5,500) the powers that be in crypto have figured that they can fork the chain, and immediately create billions of value from nothing. It can't end well. But......who knows what will make it change direction and go down? The question I have about Bitcoin cash is not why is it stuck at $300, I wonder why it isn't heading down to zero as all the Bitcoin cash holders sell their coins to buy regular Bitcoin. And....I wonder who is sitting on the bid at $300 to keep it up there? Reason to sell Bitcoin Cash seem obvious to me - I have no idea why anyone would want to buy it. But Ethereum (the #2 crypto) had a similar fork when it started, and Ethereum Classic is in the top 10 coins. Don't ask me why. I think this is probably going to be the biggest bubble in history. But it's fun while it inflates.

To: John Pitera who wrote (20132)	10/16/2017 2:39:22 AM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

ellen Leads World in Betting Inflation Will Soon Accelerate By Jeanna Smialek , Enda Curran , and Jana Randow October 15, 2017, 1:28 PM EDT The world’s top central bankers predicted inflation won’t stay low for much longer as they signaled they will push ahead with plans to gradually tighten monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Sunday that her “best guess” is consumer prices will soon accelerate after a period of surprising softness, a forecast echoed by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. The inflation wager capped the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings at which policy makers cheered the healthiest, most synchronized global economic expansion in a decade, while keeping a wary eye on the weakness of inflation and exuberance of asset prices. “The fear that dominated most of the annual IMF/World Bank meetings since the financial crisis a decade ago seems to have evaporated,” said Joachim Fels, a global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co. He also warned of an “eerie sense of security.” Central bankers nevertheless reckon normal business is finally resuming as they count on improving demand to translate into the faster inflation they expected to materialize sooner. Whether they are right was a matter of keen debate in Washington. U.S. inflation was 1.3 percent in August after stripping out volatile food and fuel, well below the Fed’s goal. Yellen said she assumed “these soft readings will not persist” and that “the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases” in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. Fed funds futures currently suggest odds of 74 percent that the U.S. will lift its rate again in December having last done so in June. ECB, BOEThe U.S. may soon be followed in pulling back stimulus by the ECB and the Bank of England. Draghi said on Saturday that he is “confident” inflation will soon pick up from September’s 1.5 percent, a position reiterated on Sunday by Vice President Vitor Constancio. ECB officials are preparing for a meeting on Oct. 26 at which they are expected to outline their bond-buying plan beyond the end of this year. While the ECB currently purchases 60 billion euros ($71 billion) of assets per month, policy makers may now cut the pace of buying by at least half to adapt to the improving economy, officials familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. As for the Bank of England, Carney told CNBC that he may need to raise rates from a record low in “coming months” as the U.K. economy is “running out” of spare capacity. Unlike many of his peers, Carney faces inflation already above his target in part because Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has weakened sterling and is undermining potential growth. *The Bank of Japan was again the outlier. “Achieving the two percent price stability target is still a long way off and the Bank of Japan will persistently pursue aggressive monetary easing,” Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said. Price PressuresWhile Japan has been plagued by low inflation for two decades, other major economies have more recently been forced to ponder why faster expansion and falling unemployment have yet to ignite price pressures. Potential explanations include a breakdown in the traditional relationship between joblessness and prices, increased trade and technology, a downward shift in long-term inflation expectations and the rise of online shopping. “We recognize that this year’s low inflation could reflect something more persistent,” said Yellen. Kuroda said “we have to deepen our understanding of what is behind the current puzzling situation.” Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. among those predicting inflation will soon emerge. They forecast global headline inflation will reach almost 3 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest in over six years. While inflation has been subdued, asset prices are soaring. The MSCI World Index of stocks last week set a new record and extended its gain this year to 16 percent. Still, Yellen said that overall financial stability risks in the U.S. remain moderate. Draghi and Kuroda were also said they saw little evidence of frothiness in markets. Others in Washington were less sanguine. The market “feels as benign in 2017 as it felt in 2006,” said Jes Staley, the chief executive of Barclays Plc, referencing the eve of the crisis. Referencing a concern raised in the IMF talks, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan accepted that Chinese companies have taken on too much debt and argued for less financial leverage and fiscal reforms to constrain local government borrowing.* “We need to pay further effort to deleveraging and strengthen policy for financial stability,” he said. Another concern for central banks is what to do in the event of another economic slump given interest rates are now so low and their balance sheets have been bloated by quantitative easing. “How are we going to respond to that is going to be a real concern,” said former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. The overriding message of policy makers in Washington was therefore not to blow it now that the outlook has improved, especially as doubts remain over Brexit and the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement. “This does not mean that we are declaring victory just yet,” Mexican central bank Governor Agustin Carstens told reporters of the better outlook. — With assistance by Brian Swint, Ye Xie, Agnel Philip, Mark Deen, Andrew Mayeda, Carolynn Look, David Biller, Eric Martin, Olga Tanas, and Yoshiaki Nohara bloomberg.com