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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve susko who wrote (16221)	1/10/1998 9:03:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Steve one of the reason HSI was so weak was that Chinese stocks listed on HSI were heavily under pressure- this was due to the fact that chinese currency has maintained strength in face of ASIAN devaluation problems- now it is argued by some pundits that this will put some pressure on chinese corporates as they stand to loose market shares- now it was this elemant which led to HSI huge sell off on Friday- now the problem is very clear if Chinese stock market breaks from here we will see a new dimension of China adding to almost very percarious situation- will this be last straw on camels back - no I don't think so I have been reading lot of research on reasons of yesterday selling and most of it is Indonesia and confidence related- I see two possibilities tomorrow- 1- 11th Nov style close and ASEAN showing some stability with a rebound off the lows of Friday- this will help SPA at 932 to go up to 945 very quickly. 2- We see China problems aggravating- this as I have written earlier would and have lead most of my ASEAN indicators below critcal levels- we may see a moini crisis but China coffers are deep although a attack on currency is not sustainable but a continous weakening of stock market will not be a good sign for China- I will like China ans Korea and Japan to lead the market out of short term jitters- Indonesian package will bring some stability but watch out for leaders if Japan China and Korea stay course we may see some upward movemet in SPA- SOX did show some character closed much lower but maintained the support of 250 closed around that however I think market is ignoring US economy and strong fundamentals and punishing the stocks far in excess of what will be really affect of a slow down in ASEA- If China and Japan maintain some order on Monday market will realise this and will recognise the inherent valuations beaten down so badly but we need not to stand in front of a moving freight train - as far as ASEA troubles does not include China as a new victim we may see SPA test of 923 as a reversal point. I will watch my levels of ASEA and China carefully - it is ASEA instituting probles and it is going to be ASEA if 923 is to be taken out- another maximum four days and flurry of good corporate numbers will shift the emphasis back to where it should belong to that is US markets underlying strength.