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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sig who wrote (27190)	1/9/1998 5:19:00 AM
From: Francois H. Gaston	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Trading DELL and being short at this time. Here are some negatives for DELL (IMHO): (1) earning release will be after CPQ that is bad because: (a) If CPQ had a blowout quarter, DELL will drop (because the general assessment is that CPQ takes market shares from DELL and not the opposite) and (b) if CPQ does not have a great quarter, DELL will go down as well (because we will assume that DELL could not do better than CPQ)... Just IMO (2) DELL is more expensive as PCs and also as PE: Projected PE on 1997 EPS for the industry is 24.... CPQ 22 and Dell 33.... Conclusion: DELL is expensive and will go down. (3) "The problem with predicting price of stock based on earnings is the unpredictability of the market. I recall several quarters ago INTC had blow away numbers and all the boards predicted spike up in stock. The stock went down the next day because analyst spin was they could never duplicate this kind of earnings, So who knows? Market is not Always rational." (this is lifted from a post by ScottMil on AOL CPQ board) (4) Wall street recommendations are as follows: Strong buy Dell/CPQ 11/19, Moderate Buy 13/13 and Buy 10/5 with some downgrade last week on in Dell Mod Buy column. Conclusion: CPQ wins. And don't forget: the market is "bearing" down on DELL like on any other stock. There is a potential for the 70s before seeing 90s. I am not staying long short in Dell because of some of the irrational enthusiams regarding this company, but if I make even 2% during this trade: hey! great. I am too much on it to loose any cent. If it then rises like crazy: I would be back in a flash and suck some more % from this Dell "shituation". My conclusion at this point is that there are more negatives about Dell than about CPQ. By the way: I also love short squeezes, panic buying and selling. Recently I managed to be on the right side of the trades. If that does not happen with Dell: I will not loose a penny (I hope) but fail to make a good profit. Good luck all. Gaston