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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Klein who wrote (490)	1/9/1998 10:29:00 AM
From: Hank	Respond to of 18691

I've also been watching ACLY with interest ever since Pancho mentioned it back when it was $19. However, the data I've been getting clearly showed strong buying and I've been waiting for a sign that it has topped. Haven't gotten it yet, so I continue to watch and wait. Hank

To: Eric Klein who wrote (490)	1/9/1998 10:39:00 AM
From: Bob Trocchi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Eric. >> And VAX always seemed more of a DOD and scientific type computer than a big business box. << Noticed your comment. I spent 21 years with DEC and perception vs reality about where DEC sold computers is often mis-leading. DEC in its early days was essentially all research and scientific. PDP days. VAX really changed this. During the hey day of the VAX, (mid 80's to early 90's) DEC sold a lot of systems into Retail, Banking, Insurance, Public Utilities, State and Local Gov't., Medical/Hospitals, Education all for Administration. COBOL was a BIG language seller. Actually outsold Fortran. BTW, PASCAL was a big language seller as well. You will have to accept this as I tell it as I have no facts that I can post to verify this. Wen I worked at DEC, I knew the breakdown and I am reporting form memory. With that said, I agree with you about ACLY. At one time I thought ACLY was a natural for a partnership with DEC. DEC still has a world class Systems Integration business and recently was voted #1 in customer satisfaction in a Computerworld survey. DEC very much wants to both protect its VAX base and get them converted to NT operating systems. Thus I saw synergy between the two. When ACLY won the FORD contract, I felt that DEC and ACLY would turn that into a focused partnership with DEC doing the selling into a lot of major accounts and using the ACLY tools. Never happened. Piercom is now the partner. ACLY is NEVER mentioned on DEC's web site. My conclusion is that something fell thru the cracks between ACLY and DEC. BTW, I am short ACLYat 23+ along with DDIM and ZITL and like you I can't understand ACLY's current strength except all stocks immediately go against me when I first take a position. Patience is required. Regards Bob T.

To: Eric Klein who wrote (490)	1/9/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 18691

Eric, RE: ACLY. The long argument is: 1) Y2K is huge. 2) ACLY is growing and profitable in Y2K. $1.6M in revenues last quarter - $200M market cap. 3) ACLY has the best product for VAX - COBOL. 4) ACLY has the only tool for VAX FORTRAN. 5) Mr. Geimer (CEO) is a nice gentleman who doesn't hype the stock. 6) There will be a deal (non-exclusive) signed with DEC soon. Geimer has hinted at this for awhile. 7) ACLY will leverage Y2K to build "migration" business (VAX to NT) after year 2000. The stock has been moving up strongly. And IBD recently had a Y2K article that mentioned ACLY favorably (as a Y2K stock with actual business and profits - a rarity) This is the long argument ... hope I convinced everyone to buy<G>. Of course, FORTRAN is a joke, Geimer has HYPED the stock relentlessly, revenues WILL decline this quarter (due to a one time sale last quarter), no new contracts have been announced yet this quarter, market cap assumes ACLY will get entire VAX COBOL market, and "migration" is a red herring. To see my analysis, check out the ACLY thread: exchange2000.com RE: timing. Your suggestion to wait until March 1st is probably good. I have a partial position already and will increase it in the next few months. Best Regards, Bill