To: SG who wrote (24626 ) 1/9/1998 8:36:00 AM From: topwright Respond to of 41046
Scott, say hi to Enzo for me, missed talking to him of late. Appreciate the kudos and hopefully I do have a calming effect to some on this thread. As I see it, this latest run-up has brought a lot attention to the stock as witnessed by all the new names I'm seeing here. That's great, as many brought new money and plan to stick around for awhile. The action over the past few days was difficult to read until yesterday when we found support after the retracement. It was a typical 50% re-tracement to appease the MM's naked short trading position off the recent rise. If one takes the time to look back over the recent historical pricing, you would notice that on 12/19 we hit an intraday low of 3.50, traded basically in a 50 cent range for the next 8 sessions then on 01/02 broke out of that pattern and traded up to 4.50. The way I read it, the MM's who normally don't have a position (inventory) were caught flat footed and were most likely averaged in on their trading accounts at or around the 3.75 so that they could be relative flat within that trading range. When we broke out to the upside, they just shorted, and the increasing demand drove us up $7.75 where we stalled, a few traders took some off the table, the MM's were quick to drop off the bid, this brought in the less experienced who fed the hungry dragon, and when we broke down through $7.00, this was like a confirmation of an ensuing freefall to those that were second guessing themselves, which then lead to the panic selling that the MM's count on so that they can cover-up their short positions. There was a little selling past the 5.75 (50% mark) but then we quickly saw the MM's step up and support the bid, the price bounced off the bottom quickly as the astute and experienced traders saw the MM's come in to support the freefall, and viola, here we are, now prepared to build a base from which to climb. From here I would expect that any, "street type money" to start filtering in once they are confident that the neophites are quieted down and have been given their pacifiers. Therefore I look for us to retest the $6.00 area to shake any loose shares, then start the rebuilding process later today. Monday is when I feel any one who is experienced and has an interest geared towards investment will enter the game, possible taking initial positions as early as today. Remember the big boys unlike the first round of bottom feeders are going to have their eye on the IPO leverage, and will have figured that into their valuation of FTEL. Considering the heated up sector from which FTEL is operating, I'm sure the valuation far exceeds these levels. Validated and stamped, RB