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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus who wrote (59969)	10/17/2017 12:30:05 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78462

The M bonds look ok for short term maturities so no panic selling there. Only had a partial fill on my first Buy at $19.68/share. I do expect it to go a bit lower (maybe test 52wk low) but I am never good at timing my buys. EKS

To: Lazarus who wrote (59969)	10/30/2017 7:37:55 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78462

Macy's Added 1.5x previous Buy (that was only a partial fill) and got my shares at $18.87/share. Company did declare their $0.37/share dividend for 1/1/2018. Still only at a 45% position size so will do one or two more adds if this goes lower on each drop 5%-7% but want to be all in before December. GN valuation still at $33.15/share and based on todays closing price is 76% undervalued. Could be a value trap. FWIW, still waiting to add PIR to my undervalued retail basket but has yet to hit my Buy price. EKS

To: Lazarus who wrote (59969)	11/7/2017 11:58:12 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78462

Macy's, Inc. (M) - another small add of Macy's (M) @ $17.83/share Here is the link of a new GN calculator that shows M fairly valued at $25.29/share. Notice how the GN is falling as the EPS & BV data is updated in the database. On these value stocks (or value traps) to find some bottom, I look at OBV (On Balance Volume). This is a leading trend indicator and is a measure of selling (if negative) or buying (when positive & rising). Value is different to every investor so OBV when very negative ( M is -210mln shares) showing lots of accumulated selling. Usually you get a negative OBV when everybody had sold (thrown in the towel) and then as OBV goes positive, the stock may/could have bottomed and s/d rise to the GN valuation. My small Buy today increased position by 50%. My next Buy will be 5% lower at/near $16.85/share. Stock during the 2008-2009 crash traded as low as $7.00/share. There is some support at $12/share-$13/share but it is an earnings story now and how revenues can be stabilized w/ ne store format(s). I am close to my full starter position of a 1% portfolio position and one more Buy will get me to that level. FWIW, revenues per sqft has gone up close to $200 sqft. This was due to some store real estate sales so there was less square feet. They can only do that so long so it's more of stbilizing sales, then growing them w/ new store format. EKS

To: Lazarus who wrote (59969)	11/9/2017 9:17:42 AM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By Lazarus Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78462

Macy's, Inc. (M) - Macy's beats by $0.04, misses on revenue Q3 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $5.28B (-6.2% Y/Y) misses by $30M. Q3 comparable sales on an owned plus license basis down 3.6% Y/Y, about 100 basis points worse than expectations. Absent charges, Q3 operating income of $176M or 3.3% of sales vs. $169M and 3% a year earlier. Operating cash flows net of investing of $43M in the first nine months of 2017 vs. outflows of $183M for same period a year ago. Full-year comp sales guidance of down 2.2%-3.3% is affirmed. Full-year EPS (absent items) is seen at $2.91-$3.16. Press Release ------------------------------------------- Part of their re-structure store concept: In the third quarter of 2017, the company opened eight new freestanding Bluemercury beauty specialty stores for a total of 135 stores and seven new Macy’s Backstage off-price stores within existing Macy’s stores for a total of 45 locations. During the quarter, the company announced that it will close the following stores in early 2018: Laguna Hills Mall in Laguna Hills, CA; Stonestown Galleria in San Francisco, CA; and Westside Pavilion in Los Angeles, CA. Macy’s, Inc. now expects adjusted earnings per diluted share of between $3.38 and $3.63 in 2017 w/ adjusted earnings per diluted share of $2.91 to $3.16 are expected in 2017. ----------------------------------- Would like to see a bit more real estate sold in 2018 and more focus on On-line sales especially their high margin beauty products. Will be watching news to see more new marketing plans (not loyalty program) that must move the needle. Otherwise, I may not hold out for full value, Dividend still looks secure if adjusted earnings come in as estimated. EKS