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Strategies & Market Trends : Zman Market Timing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (14963)	10/23/2017 10:41:18 PM
From: da_cheif™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15903

what is it with you and your disdain for a bull market......are you a foreigner? or what

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (14963)	10/24/2017 2:03:26 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15903

HI Bull, I was commenting to OX that I have to be more careful of when I am sometimes using satire or using my super bull everything will absolutely go right.... I should have commented on the idea that the Fed should continue to increase their balance sheet rather than leaving it at the new level of 4.6 Trillion. Message 31315975 Hi OX, I need to start to explain myself better..... in the sense that just as in debate you are supposed to be able to debate and advocate either side of an issue, a question ... a proposal. I am writing a few of my posts from the blue sky all is right and everything will continue to go right. We are hearing quite a few people who are saying this time is different. But there are some people who are cautious... in the morning WFC brings their bullish strategist on CNBC... on Squawk box. Darell Cronk of WFC is saying we are not at the Euphoria stage yet. that comes during the 6 AM hour and then Scott Wren comes on at 5:25 PM and so all the bases are covered. and to be fair the bulge banks are so huge they have multiple asset management operations and they have conflicting views or nuanced differences in their views... that occurs at every major investment firm. Nuanced views and the ability to see the bull and bear potential future outcomes are typically able to be formulated by most active asset managers. WFC which has gone from a massive consumer fraud criminal scandel to go on an have an investment banking FX scandel where senior executives are being fired is also attempting to mitigate that negative news cycle by getting out and generating other talking points. And so to cover all bases on the 5 PM Fast Money show they bring on their Strategist who is the timid bull who says his year end target is SPX 2300 - 2400. 2400 on the SPX is 164 points below today's close... 2300 is 264 SPX points lower. Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global equity strategist, discusses the rally in the markets and why he's a little less bullish right now. He comes on and says valuations are stretched, you have a FED rate hike cycle that in the past has meant a 20 to 30% reduction in PE Ratio's, Price to Sales ratio's are basically at an all time high he thinks the Market's a little overly optimistic on tax reform hopes He would argue the last 90 points up on the SPX are based on tax reform occurring. They started the overweight technology meaningfully overweight technology coming into 2017 but "we cut out way to early in the year,we were overweight large cap tech as well as but back to equal weight way too early:" Wren says the FED Funds rate hike in Dec is a given. He feels that we are going to have 3 to 4 rate hikes next year. the WFC fixed income team believes there will only be 2 hikes in 2018, but Wren points out that other Wall street firms believe there will be 4..... He points out that 3 or 4 hikes is going to be a meaningful headwind to stock valuations ... and it truly will be. As Warren Buffet has said repeatedly, the level of interest rates have everything to do with the proper price multiple that stocks should get. The Federal Reserve has a basic model of the earnings yield of the SPX vs the yield on the ten year US treasury note. Scott Wren does point out that many of the market accidents or downturns revolve around mistakes in Central Bank Interest rate policy. And the Fed is in experimental mode and we are actually in a new Era. the Post GFC.. Global ZIRP that was in place for quite a number of years since 2009. The ECB is going to stop easing and will start to reverse towards free unlimited monetary stimulus..... that is the area that is going to be very interesting to watch... Just watch what happens to the EUR... It will be going much lower over the next 9 to 12 months... parity with the USD is a very real possibility in my work, and the Investment community had gotten very long on the EUR as it moved up past 1.13 this year and even more bullish as it got over 1.18 and up to 1.22 before it reversed on a dime. It topped the day that US 10 year rates bottomed the exact same day September 8th.. both of the 10 year yield and the EUR/USD made their turns overseas in Europe where much of Massive ReInsurance, Insurance industry, Global Macro money managers, endowments, pensions funds etc all have money run out of companies that have European and US operations. Currency markets rarely make major turns in US trading. They either make them in the thinness of Auckland and Sydney ...when Singapore was coming into work in their early AM and the GBP/USD slipped from 1.21 to 1.16 for a flash crash brief few minutes back earlier in the year. And then big turns in the currencies occur in London / Europe trading hours. his interview is 2:47 minutes... so it's concise.... under 3 minutes. cnbc.com John