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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (10634)1/9/1998 11:41:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 17305
 
My sources for accurate "block trade" information is dwindling.

Shortly it will be very rare for me to be able to get the information but I find it to be of little use anyway. Yesterday I have 2 large blocks trading late in the day on the downside indicating there was a likelihood that the floodgates would open to the downside today.

CNBC, in my opinion, explains away sharp declines/advances by using the catch-all statement "programs hit at ...". One obvious way you can tell they have no idea what is happening is when they say something like "Programs kicked in at the open today....". I think I explained that before. Programs do not kick in at the open.

As far as trying to divine whether programs are hitting or not it's an art not a science. Unless you have sources on the floor or somewhere where people who know will tell you, then the only way you can guess at whether or not programs are hitting (in my opinion) is to watch the PREM and how it is moving with respect to FV.

With the exception of a brief time shortly before 11 EST I would not think that today had the chance to see any major programs hit. So far, anyway.

Additional clues would be obtained from extreme TICK readings. This also happened shortly before 11.

Co-incidently....We have extreme TICKs and probable Programs kicking in right now, with PREM at new lows for the day.

I would presume that programs are hitting on the sell side right now.
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EDIT I just found out there was one large upside block trade this morning, possibly indicating a late rally today.