I Twat I Taw a Puddy Tat: PGDCEB report.
The sky is falling. And with it all manner of creatures including more than a few falling felines.
New gappers: When it rains, it pours! ASGR, MDM, TLK, GMTC, NANX, ADPT, MDYN, LCCI, BCGI. All closed with well over 30% losses for the day. Ivan would consider MDYN and BCGI as Quasi PGDCEBs or QPGDCEBs because the actual gap was less than 30% at 21% and 20% respectively. Some of the others may fit into this category but most are 30-30 or more. The CEO of LCCI resigned. MDM and ASGR are involved in an aborted merger. TLK is an ADR for an Indonesian telecom company. The rest fell on earnings related news.
Add these to the existing list of: EFII, KLIC, VVUS, DANKY, ORCL, WADE, MMGC, NRGN, NRL, DAVE, SLAM, PLXS, APOG, DEPO, XION, AGP, SGI, OXHP, ACTM, TSEMF, TRKN, ALRM, CKSG, LEN, MEGO, OCAD, QUAL, PLH, BMC, ALTS, AMLN, TEAL, LIPO, CMCI, XION, RMDY, TLDCF, RAIN, MCRE, HCIA, PTB. Some of these may never signal or be anywhere close to signaling now, and some may be in the 3 week post gap waiting period. I'm thinking of limiting the post gap monitoring period to 6 months. Any suggestions about an apropriate time limit?
New signals: There were no new signals today that I am aware of, despite my earlier posting of two in the making, ORCL and ALTS. Both did not move sufficiently off the day's low. Sorry for the mistake on ALTS.
Currently traded post signal cats:
QUAL:, a semi conductor company, is the cat that won't die. It went up today in the face of an almost 6% decline in the SOX index. Most agressive valid entry point was 3 13/16 on the ask. Exits:
1) 3 15/16 on 1/5 for ACT daily trend.
2) 4 on 1/7 for intraday trend. Likely price improvement to 4 1/16 on this one.
3) Still open for intraday trend and horizontal support.
4) 3 15/16 on 1/5 for intraday BB and RSI
DAVE: It seemed as though Dave's namesake really wanted to bounce, but it just couldn't overcome two days of extreme market weakness. This is an interesting study in a bounce failure that happens during the first two post signal days. My contention is that methods 1 and 2 are too strict to apply during these days, and I think there is general agreement on this point from the other researchers. Therefore in this case there are 3 possible exit methods. If no uptrend is established, stop loss one tick below signal day low is assumed. If there is a chartable uptrend, selections 3 and 4 from above could also be applicable.
1) Stop loss at 7 on the bid today
3) 7 1/8 on the bid today
4) 7 on the bid today
Reverse signals: Ivan currently holding short OXHP based on signal exit and resistance encountered in the form of a second gap post dating the original 30%+ gap.
The strong up and down markets of the last two weeks have made it hard to determine the validity of recent signals. All have moved in tandem with the volatile market, except QUAL. Makes it hard to draw conclusions.
Thanks to Ivan, Dave, Doug and others for your recent contributions to this project. We've got a growing list of ideas to pursue. One of the most promising is Ivan's volume studies to both help distinguish high quality signals and to call reversal points. I'm anxiously awaiting the results of Doug's promised weekend work in this regard. With the cat stable practically bursting at the seams, 1998 could be, well, The Year of the Cat!
Esteban
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