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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (136694)11/11/2017 8:51:31 PM
From: carranza21 Recommendation

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bruiser98

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217974
 
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (136694)11/12/2017 2:46:32 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217974
 
Crikey that is predicting quite a big upset. Richter 9 is big. And he didn't even mention Mq's climate change theory as described right here in SI in October 2007 which seems so long ago now.

Firstly welcome back to our pet Olive Man ASTM colour code I guess about 4 Canuckstan Quebecois The Black Swan who has been black swanned up close and personal. TBS must be feeling pretty good to be posting again. I too despite excellent ASTM protection got knocked for a row of shit cans (local colloquialism) 2.5 years ago Richter 9.0 with the suicide of the equivalent of Coconut which does not seem possible now. Actually I don't understand the Olive Man reference as I missed its inception so I might be barking up the wrong tree.

What we think reality is and will be and what turns out to be reality are two very different things, usually not to our advantage, though it's an ill wind that blows nobody good. Too often it's ourselves that blow the ill wind onto ourselves despite our best intentions and thinking we have enough of reality figured out.

Back in October 2007 having largely ignored solar cycles, I had a look. It was obvious that the 20th century was a solar maximum. I predicted the next sunspot peak spot on. I also, using 2020 foresight, predicted a big chill starting in 2018 and 19 and quite apparent by 2020. The last winter here and summer in England were inclement. It's still chilly. There was even snow in Tekapo which has a big glacial lake that will refill with ice when reglaciation gets going. Tekapo town is on the terminal moraine so property values will go down with excess snow.

The glaciers made it all the way to about 50km north of London. Sweden looked like Greenland. It's still rising after the last glaciation. TBS said years ago he would enjoy the skiing close to home but I take that with a grain of salt.

Genghis did well during the medieval warming but the Mongols lost their mojo when the Maunder and Dalton minima put the kibosh on them.

People claim to be worried about the pathetic 0.7 degree celsius increase since the 19th century but they don't say how much of that was just the end of the little ice age. They don't know.

The CO2 settled science has been shown to be bung because none of the vaunted computer models was even close to reality.

CO2 has gone from homeopathic starvation level of 280 parts per million at which plants can barely breathe to a still low 400 parts per million. Plants had their heyday during the carboniferous times.

Unfortunately for them they hadn't heard of the tragedy of the commons. So they gobbled the carbon which ended up in stupendously vast graveyards of coal, tars, oil, gas, dolomites, limestone. Radiolarian ooze and sediments cover the oceanic crust kilometres deep.

People are recycling a little bit of it. So far after a century of huge effort we have not even doubked CO2. It's like filling a leaky bucket = the more it fills the faster it leaks out.

It will be decades before we achieve 500 ppm. Peak People will be 2037 so there will be fewer people and they are increasingly reluctant to do their share. Americans still buy dirty great gas guzzling SUVs but the rest of us are more tightwad. Airlines are holding the line even as fuel consumption per passenger mile has dropped 90% since the good old DC8.

So welcome back TBS. As Big Don said, this could be the lull before the storm. Richter 9 is big.

Mqurice