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Technology Stocks : SSA (SSAX) BPCS/Client Server -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: J Walter Jacobs who wrote (409)1/9/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: MAURICE J. SADOWSKY  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 915
 
Well here is the first of a number of research initiatives--but first the CAVEAT!! I am not a lawyer-nor an accountant--not even an analyst--again I could use some help and I promise the other views will not be viewed as criticism.

From the Hambrecht & Quist report of December 10, 1997.

Estimates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
1998 EPS .03 .08 .18 .31 .60 DOLLARS PER SHARE
1998 REV 104.0 113.2 132.4 160.5 510.1 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

VALUATION METRICS OF SSA AND OTHER ERP VENDORS

MARKET ESTIMATED Mkt/ EST
CAPITALIZATION 1997 REV. 1997 REV 1998
(MILLIONS $)
BAAN CO. $7,700 $662 12X $1.19
J.D. EDWS $3,300 $648 5X $0.55 PEOPLSFT $8,000 $805 10X $0.59 SAP $34,900 $3,283 11X $2.07 MEAN 10X

SSA $435 $431 1X $0.61
The price to earnings to lost somewhere in cyberspace--so here it is again: Baan--61X; J D Edwards--60X; Peoplesoft--59X; SAP--51X: ssax--16X

Comment from MJS--(shows the high price ssax paid for poor strategy and implementation of BPCS 5.0) Now that BPCS 6.0 appears to be making progress, at a minimum we should double the market capitalization after some decent quarters.

Shares--there are 44.9 million shares (counting those held by the company for employee bonuses).

Cash was reported at 83.5 million after paying off debt--I'm having a very hard time tracking the money from the preferred stock offering and other transactions--I know I will need help in this area.

I am doing this on my word processor and will "copy and paste"--hope it come out so you can read it--Maurice



To: J Walter Jacobs who wrote (409)1/9/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: James B. Barnes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 915
 
<<MM's appear to be accumulating shares in a sharply down market and holding for higher prices next week.>>

Is this just a guess, or do you have some empirical evidence to support your assumption?