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Biotech / Medical : QGLY - Funny Name Great Product. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Colby who wrote (7174)1/9/1998 7:24:00 PM
From: Arris  Respond to of 8960
 
Went past the trade missions of Britain, Ireland, France and Brazil here in NEW YORK. I can not get any smell of Quigley as an imported product in ANY of them. I feel that it means one of several things.

1. Plans are underway but not yet in effect.
2. There are no plans and other things are going to happen (hope not)
3. It will take at least another year to make the wheels of progress turn. This does us no good till then.
4. The foreign parties may have other rules and regulations holding Q up.

In all respects, I don't think that we will see anything international this year except for Canada, which is better than nothing. One good thing, the Canadian rules are much strickter than the US and other foreign countries, so if we do get Canada, the others may fall into line more easily.

Anyone have access to the US Board of Trade in Washington? Any information from any direction. Opinion or rumor?



To: Colby who wrote (7174)1/9/1998 7:25:00 PM
From: Todd D. Wiener  Respond to of 8960
 
Colby-

"Combine that with continued earning alerts and the possibility for a serious correction exists."

I don't know what stocks you've been looking at, but aside from the major averages, there has already been a serious correction. Chip stocks have been chopped by 30-50+%, biotechs have been hurting, oil-service stocks have slipped, networking stocks have been unplugged, QGLY's off 30+%. Stocks that have given no indication of an earnings shortfall are being dumped.

I'm not thrilled with the market either, but I don't expect a long-term disaster scenario. As soon as there is more visibility for 1998 earnings, and once enough earnings estimates have been slashed sufficiently, the stocks will stabilize.

My concern is that the big caps generally are very overpriced, even as most other stocks have suffered 15-80% corrections. The illusion is that the market is down only 10%, but the bear market has been occurring for a while in many stocks, including small caps.

The "pulling out of small caps" that you envision has already happened, and it's continuing to happen. However, I certainly believe that fundamentally sound stocks are much closer to their bottoms than to their tops. Assuming the earnings picture for many groups looks better in late 1998 than it does currently, I expect a tech rally (originating in the chip-equipment industry) in about 2 months. That should help many stock groups.

The real question is whether the large numbers of clobbered stocks can establish a sustained rally while the big caps (XON, KO, PG, EK, G, DIS, MSFT, etc.) remain so overpriced. If they can't, the big stocks will have to crack. The impending correction in the big stocks may further pressure those stocks that have already been squashed. In this latter scenario, the market will eventually be able to stage a significant, sustained rebound in nearly all sectors, because all stocks will have been washed out.

Here's my perspective: I buy stocks to sell at certain price targets (or perhaps only when their fundamentals deteriorate). Until the market presents me with a fair price for my shares, I'm not going to sell them. Think of stocks as if they were valuable paintings, and you are very confident that they will be worth much more in 5 years (or even 2 years). If the fine art market began to decline sharply, and no one knew how low prices would fall, would you rush to sell your paintings? Or would you remind yourself that despite fluctuations in the prices of fine art, you don't want to sell them until the price is right.

It's not a perfect analogy, but it helps to remind me that despite the wild swings and downdrafts in stock prices, I should focus on my stocks' price targets for 1999, 2000 and beyond. Therefore, I try not to worry about the path that the stock price takes on the way to my price target. If you are a trader or an owner of stocks with questionable fundamentals, this analogy doesn't apply. In these cases, you probably need to be concerned with the fluctuations in price.

It seems that the emotional pain comes from the need to sell at every top and buy at every bottom. In other words, the fear of missing opportunities, such as selling a stock now, and buying it back at a lower price. If I have the chance to do this, but I don't, I may feel like I missed an opportunity. I deal with this constantly. I just have to accept the truth that I'm not going to be able to take advantage of every opportunity.

In the meantime, I'm going to wait for the dust to settle, for the right time to buy the right stocks at the right prices.

Good luck.

Todd



To: Colby who wrote (7174)1/9/1998 7:29:00 PM
From: Gary Clarke  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8960
 
There are quite a few "short shares" to be handled. When is the day to cover the shares?? Gary



To: Colby who wrote (7174)1/9/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: VIPER85730  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 8960
 
Colby,

IMO, The market already turned. Just nobody told us. Q didn't go from 22 to 15 on its own or through any fault of the company.

VIPER----------<

P.S. If you think Q's taken a hit, wait'll you see the companies that will take a serious "Year 2000" charge on their next 10k. Q won't be one of them. LOL. Very little Year 2000 risk here that I can see. And if anyone thinks I'm joking, ..... I ain't!!!!!!!! Best take a look at your portfolio NOW.