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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (27295)	1/9/1998 7:18:00 PM
From: Francois H. Gaston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Today showed what I have been trying to explain to this board: Do your TA on a,b,c and d.... then you will be very successful in this stockmarket. My portfolio is up 6.131% this week Not great bu not terrible either. This is the strategy I use: Remember the strategy I already outlined in some previous posts: every morning you should quickly combine an analysis of the 4 main aspects of the market (for TA I use candlestick interpretation a lot): (a) TA on Asia and Europe (b) TA on US indexes (c) TA on sector you want to be involve in (d) TA on equity you want to trade that day (e) bla bla about PE, product, market share, growth is not as important these days. If all are in sequence... go with the trend. That is exactly what happened today, for all of us to see!!! If you bought on the early dips you were betting against trend a and b and c and d.... Now THAT is complete speculation, in my book. This morning analysis showed: Asia down, Europe down, US indexes down, High tech in down trend and CPQ and Dell in downtrend yesterday... What did that tell you: better go with the trend and sell this morning while finding some stocks to short. The US has not taken the leads recently and you HAVE to trade WITH the trend. I was suprised about the extraordinary resilience today, at the beginning of the day (many hoping for a buy of on the dip and a January effect!... but the shorts and sellers took over and panic selling ensued in the techstocks in particular. Because of the early morning resilience and the ridicule aspect of this panic selling, I believe that today was the day to close short positions and start buying some equity. That is risky because we don't know Asia and Europe reaction to US crash... BUT panic selling usually is followed by a rebound (even if it is just a dead cat bounce) I am willing to bet (and I did by buying some CPQ at 57 1/4, and closing all my shorts with a profit) that a rebound is in the making for Monday... possibly big rebound. Good luck.... but for the longs, you should see that you are not much better off than last July while some traders alternating shorts and buys are snatching a few % points here and there. Just my feeling about trading this market. Good luck Gaston

To: jim kelley who wrote (27295)	1/10/1998 11:49:00 AM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

RE: If you do not use facts for your investments decisions, are you using a Ouija board or perhaps sympathetic crystals. Jim K, Markets are often unreasonable. How many times have you seen a stock or a market react incorectly, or rather opposite the way you expected it to, to news ? Fundamental facts are usually one of the best things to go on, But at times, like now, historical facts are expected to continue out 2 years. People are talking about valuing DELL stock on 1999,2000 earnings. Well, all of the SEA and Indonesian unrest is forcing investors to look a little closer to home. As the focus shifts from 1999,2000 and to the 1st Q of 1998, Investors are questioning their forcasts. My quote is Reality is only important when perception is forced to deal with Reality. Perception is that all is well. Reality is that 25-35% of the global economey is not well. We do not know how bad it is yet, but by the time we can sort out the real numbers, the markets may have or will have discounted what they tell us. That is the delima, are they weak, (mkt recovers quickly) or are they really bad (mkt does not recover and may get worse on hearing the numbers) or does the mkt get it wrong, up or down. 3 years of 20+% gains makes one want to think that nothing bad is going to happen. It is posible that, as money flowes to bonds (flight to quality) that the market gets damaged enough to make investors reluctant to come back to equities, Yes even DELL. Jim, I do not know how long you have been investing, But think back...What have you seen the market do. Does this seem like things it has done before ? Is what is causing the mkt to behave this way seem like the things that made it behave in the past ? I don't know your answers. I think there has been a tectonic shift. Can DELL go back to $100, sure, Can DELL go to $50, sure. Right now, I think the Risk to the down side outweighs the Reward to the upside. Jim