To: hal jordan who wrote (29879 ) 1/10/1998 10:06:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 61433
Corporate Buyers' Survey – 6 January 1998 3 CIOs we surveyed were quite confident their companies will be ready. We would point out that some of them may be unpleasantly surprised. Even if they are prepared, users in Europe and the Far East appear to be taking Y2K less seriously. The question of spending pressure on mainstream items due to redirection of budgets toward Y2K is controversial. Our survey found that most of Y2K spending would be incremental. That 30% would be redirected is cause for some concern, in our view. Most at risk would be new software applications (and the servers they would run on); many said any deferrals would be across the board. The problem may be more people and expertise than dollars, however, if our findings are correct. Which hardware vendors will win most in your spending plans? 1. IBM 2. Compaq 3. Hewlett-Packard 4. EMC — Sun Micro Which hardware vendors will lose most? 1. IBM 2. Digital Clear winners included Compaq, HP, EMC (now strongly on radar), and Sun Micro. Digital was less bad than in previous years with an equal number of win and lose mentions. IBM typically comes out first on both lists. Netting it out, spending plans for IBM appear modestly favorable as they were a year ago. Will 1998 be the year that Wintel commoditizes servers? Yes 36% No 64 Will NT destroy UNIX, and will Intel mean the death of RISC? Not yet, which is good news for Sun, Sequent, HP, IBM, and other vendors that still have a high-margin UNIX server business. We expect another 20% increase in UNIX enterprise server sales as NT remains a small server operating system. We didn't bother to ask about workstations, where only Sun hasn't thrown in the towel. What will be the major industry trends in 1998? “Microsoft NT; further Microsoft dominance” “Year 2000” “Java and network computing” “Electronic commerce” “IT personnel retention” Microsoft Against the World Do you think the government generally is right to pursue Microsoft? Yes 68% No 32 Do you think Microsoft abuses its power? Yes 59% No 41 Do you think Microsoft should be allowed to integrate the browser and the operating system? Yes 62% No 38 Although users think Microsoft's business practices should be monitored, we didn't sense outrage. Most respondents thought the company should be permitted to integrate browser and operating system. Pro-Microsoft comments included, “The DOJ should look for real problems,” and “It should be left to natural business evolution.” Some felt the operating system and browser must stand on their own. A number offered the suggestion that other browsers should be integrated into Windows with Microsoft possibly paying a licensing fee. Which side do you take in Sun's suing Microsoft over Java? Sun 58% Microsoft 12 Neither 30 Do you want to use 100% Pure Java or would you be happy with a Microsoft version? Pure Java 62% Microsoft 22 Either 16 Is ISO recognition of Sun as the keeper of Java important to you? Yes 52% No 48 Users like choice and don't want Microsoft becoming too powerful. In addition, CIOs mostly take Sun's side in the Java debate. Microsoft was viewed as “not playing ball,” “infringing,” and “being a bully.” A minority thought that Sun is attempting to create its own proprietary platform. Similarly, Pure Java was the preferred way of taking Java. Need for a standard, portability, and superior technology were mentioned as reasons for supporting Pure Java. This customer view might force Microsoft back into the fold. On the other hand, ISO endorsement of Java looks to be mostly a PR victory for Sun.