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To: Todd D. Wiener who wrote (2978)1/10/1998 9:02:00 AM
From: Double Dipper  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14266
 
Did anyone catch Abby Joseph Cowen, Goldman Sachs, on Louis Rukeyser last night? She was pretty bullish predicting dow to hit 8700
and saying the Asian problem was very serious but over emphasised and
that good stocks are being thrown out with the bad. She called this
a real bargain hunters dream market (paraphrased). Mary Farrell was also on with some other big names. All were still bullish on the
market and expect the market to filter lower on every little
noise in asia but firmly believe the market is going higher this
year than anyone else expects and that earnings are not going to be
as impacted as everyone believes. She believes 18 times earnings for
S&P companies is not too unreasonable as is being ballyhoo'd by
the bears. The impact of these particular people who are widely
followed should give way to restoring some sanity in the market.

Kevin



To: Todd D. Wiener who wrote (2978)1/10/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: Bleeker  Respond to of 14266
 
Todd, in addition to thqi and aklm, Brilliant Digital
Entertainment (bde) was unchanged and positive for most of
the day. I reviewed one of their games, CyberSwine, yesterday.
The animation and game play is unlike anything I've seen. I'm
going to launch the thread on bde later today. I'll post one
final notice here when it is ready.

I agree with many of the points in your message. My holdings
were fairly well insulated from Friday's market selloff. They
were already beaten down by more than 50% last year due to a
combination of tax-loss selling, deteriorating fundamentals and
market uncertainty. A number of stocks and sectors, as you said,
have already discounted the possibility of an earnings shortfall
and an economic slowdown. I think the market has been prudent in
discounting an earnings slowdown.

But it has forgotten one thing:

The economy added more than twice as many jobs in December
than the consensus estimate with no wage pressure in sight
(source: average hourly earnings in Friday's payroll report).
The long bond has dropped to 5.70%. And Tuesday's Producer
Price Index should again show that inflation is tame.

Some see a connection between the bond rally and an economic
slowdown, but the rally in Treasuries has been sparked mostly
by hot money and flight capital from Asia. The stock market
should continue to see flight capital away from the Pacific Rim
and into U.S. Treasuries. The upshot is lower yields, and that's
good for corporate financing and the U.S. economy.

At some point, the stock market should acknowledge the effect
of lower interest rates and the boom in mortgage refis on
the economy. Perhaps bond yields need to go a bit lower for
the market to discount stronger economic growth. But in the
short term, Intel's earnings on Tuesday--and not the Producer
Price Index--will dominate the debate in the financial press.

No one seems to care about jobs and inflation anymore.

cheers,
Bleeker



To: Todd D. Wiener who wrote (2978)1/10/1998 12:16:00 PM
From: AreWeThereYet  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14266
 
Todd

>> My concern is that the big caps generally are very overpriced, <<

When I read the above message, I immediately see MSFT and maybe INTC and DELL in my mind. What do you think? Will MSFT be another IBM in 80s?

It is hard to see when the dust will settle.

aC