To: Todd D. Wiener who wrote (2978 ) 1/10/1998 10:15:00 AM From: Bleeker Respond to of 14266
Todd, in addition to thqi and aklm, Brilliant Digital Entertainment (bde) was unchanged and positive for most of the day. I reviewed one of their games, CyberSwine, yesterday. The animation and game play is unlike anything I've seen. I'm going to launch the thread on bde later today. I'll post one final notice here when it is ready. I agree with many of the points in your message. My holdings were fairly well insulated from Friday's market selloff. They were already beaten down by more than 50% last year due to a combination of tax-loss selling, deteriorating fundamentals and market uncertainty. A number of stocks and sectors, as you said, have already discounted the possibility of an earnings shortfall and an economic slowdown. I think the market has been prudent in discounting an earnings slowdown. But it has forgotten one thing: The economy added more than twice as many jobs in December than the consensus estimate with no wage pressure in sight (source: average hourly earnings in Friday's payroll report). The long bond has dropped to 5.70%. And Tuesday's Producer Price Index should again show that inflation is tame. Some see a connection between the bond rally and an economic slowdown, but the rally in Treasuries has been sparked mostly by hot money and flight capital from Asia. The stock market should continue to see flight capital away from the Pacific Rim and into U.S. Treasuries. The upshot is lower yields, and that's good for corporate financing and the U.S. economy. At some point, the stock market should acknowledge the effect of lower interest rates and the boom in mortgage refis on the economy. Perhaps bond yields need to go a bit lower for the market to discount stronger economic growth. But in the short term, Intel's earnings on Tuesday--and not the Producer Price Index--will dominate the debate in the financial press. No one seems to care about jobs and inflation anymore. cheers, Bleeker