To: KM who wrote (43033 ) 1/10/1998 11:43:00 PM From: Scott Norteman Respond to of 58324
To all: IOM, the market, and a few random thoughts. This week has been pretty lousy to say the least! I still think, however, that things are fundamentally OK with IOM. I'm sitting on a pretty hefty loss with my FEB 12 1/2 calls, but I still believe this is a good buying spot for IOM. Again, despite the market,IMHO, Iomega looks good technically. It has moved down this week, but the volume has been light. Accumulation/Distribution indicates there is still NO significant distribution taking place. Money Flow bottomed on Dec 19th and has been oscillating with an upward trend ever since. Technically, I still feel OK about the company. The general market however, is a different story. As usual, like A-holes, everyone has an opinion. From the talking heads and their interviewees on CNBC to the mega-bucks making market timing services, they all willingly shower us with their prognostications. "Who is right?" you ask. Who knows. But I don't want to be left out, so here goes my $.02. I don't know. Yep, it's that simple. I could make equally strong arguments for the market moving UP or DOWN at this juncture in market history. (UP- The market is finishing up on a consolidation phase that has been going on for many months. The Asian crisis has already been factored into stock prices. Tons of retirement money now going into bond funds will be looking for a new home soon. Lots of short interest. Interest rates reaching record lows, blah, blah blah). (DOWN- Triple top (heck maybe even quadruple if you count this week) forming. Significant amounts of churning (usually associated with market tops) going on. High volume on all exchanges without further upward price movement. IBD accumulation/Distribution rating for SP500, NASDAQ, and the DOW are all ** D or D- **!! Dow closes below the 200 DMA. Asian crisis could affect earnings well into next year. Lower highs. blah, blah, blah). The list could of course be much longer for either side, but I'm about as overloaded as everyone else, so I'll stop. I started out this weekend trying to figure some fancy shmancy options position that would cover all my bases, but after experimenting with all kinds of complex scenarios and modeling them in Option Vue 5, I've come to the conclusion that I'm just going to keep it simple. FWIW, I think there is more downside potential in the overall market than upside, at least through February anyway. So all I'm going to do is hedge the overall market a bit by buying some OEX puts. I'm not touching IOM, however. Right now, in my mind the only two scenarios that would make my FEB calls expire worthless would be nasty bear market through February, or IOM missing earnings. I don't feel like the latter is too likely, but ya NEVER know! I would be interested in hearing if some of you are making adjustments to your options positions in IOM or the market. Scott/FL