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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (1041625)	12/5/2017 3:55:04 PM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 1583365

LOL. I guess it probably appears from your side that I'm being a bit selective in the timing of my posts to you. I'm not too worried about any short term see saw moves, though, to be honest. I'm more watching for the big event move. I just don't know if it will be a slow grinding decline punctuated by several large drops like we had from 2001-2 or more of a cliff drop. I'm guessing more of a slow grind down, as the unrelenting pressure of the Fed draining liquidity starts to take its toll. I think when the Fed's quarter reductions start to hit the $90B+ mark by the Q2'18 is when the markets will start to take notice.

To: Rarebird who wrote (1041625)	12/7/2017 8:40:17 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1583365

Gundlach's out with some analysis again. He gives a balanced perspective. He gives lots of reasons for why this bull market might continue, but signals caution on bonds due to the high probability that we get a grinding bond route from all the deficit spending from tax cuts requiring new bond issuance and from the Fed's QT. He thinks the 10-Yr could be at 5-6% by 2020. That's a bold call, but doable if the Fed keeps up a steady rate hike regime of 1% per year. He also cautions on stocks mentioning the high correlation between QE and the rise in stock prices. I continue to believe this round of QT will sink both stocks and bonds. So the safest places will be cash and low duration bonds. Gundlach recommends opening new positions in broad based commodities. I don't own commodities at this point, but maybe I should. Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over advisorperspectives.com