Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: freelyhovering who wrote (4731)	1/10/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Hi Myron, When she said a few hundred points, she was clearly downplaying the coming sell off to the audience in an attempt to soften the blow and angst of Mr. and Mrs. Long Term Investor. I expect to see the Otober lows taken out, and then we'll get set for a nice rally into possibly new highs. I would even think 9600. GZ

To: freelyhovering who wrote (4731)	1/10/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: Chris	Respond to of 42787

hi myron amd everyone,, (wallstreet gurus) general post to everyone it is always interesting to watch friday night wall street week and cnn's moneyline (they are on the same time).. Ive found this: 1) wallstreet week gurus are always downplaying and worried about the long-term. they would call this as a little "hiccup".. they said techs are great opportunities and suggested buying the beaten down banks., etc.etc... 2) cnn moneyline guests had a different tone.. more of a "mathematical approac" saying "if mkt is going to be at pe of 18", the mkt is slightly overvauled and it will have more downside to go.. etc.etc.. completely different views of the mkt. it's really funny. becuase my dad and i always pick a side and say "see, he's right,, listen to him".. and i turn around and say "these gurus dont know diddly.. did they know a correction was coming up? did they know/warn us of a oct 29 correction?? i recall clearly that they did not.. one of the guests on wall street week said "this volatility is NORMAL" and shouldn't be unusual... JEsus.. -222 is normal? what is he talking about?? then they said ibm was a great pick. ahhh. no.. ibm is falling like a rock to 100 after a failed rally at 107. this baby might see 90's if the dow continues to go down.. what i want to tell you is this: these people are basing their decisions on VALUATIONS. they have no SENSE of timing. and mary farrow i recall yesterday said "valuation" is not a timing tool. well, i would say, then why use valuation as your decision tool?? wouldn't chart analysis be the key?? in fact, isn't what profits/losses are made of?? your timing is crucial in the stock mkt. no joke.. recently, let's use this example: MSFT at 140 has not changed fundamentally compared to MSFT at 120. but if you look at the prices between the 2 dates, the prices are way differnt.. almost 15-20% difference.. bascially what im saying is that using fundamental analysis is useful to screen the good and weak stocks. but aside from that, it's ineffective ... because a fundental analysis would both say a buy at 140 and also a buy at 120.. (b/c there is not change in fundamentals) but according to TA.. it was a sell at 140 and a buy at 120 (bottom fish play)... =================== why is TA looked down upon? 1) b/c it's not logical to many people. "you can play the stock mkt with a bunch of lines and curves? that is voo doo." 2) they dont understand lines and curves, but would rather deal with numbers and balance sheets and feel like "owning part of the company".. 3) TA is used by traders. and traders in my view are looked down upon too (imo).. i talk to other people. and they say "oh no... you can't make money as a trader.. only long-term is best. once you buy it, dont even look at it even until next year". you tell me that, ill jump from a building <g> 4) the media has given the impression that buy on dips and buying for hte long-term is the best... well, if you buy at the peak of the mkt, you're at the worst case scenario.. if you're buying at the bottom of the mkt cylce, then yeay.. you'll do well. guess what? isn't it all about timing?? isn't it timing whether you are at the peak or at the bottom of a mkt cycle? ================================================== I guess im just rambling my head off. basically, i see those wall street gurus knowing nothing more than you and I. when they say "this year will be volatile",, i think they are just trying to cover their reputation when the mkt goes down. a little hiccup as they call it.. i would call it a crash.. just my opinoins.. feel free to comment or questions my views.. Chris

To: freelyhovering who wrote (4731)	1/10/1998 2:13:00 PM
From: Chris	Respond to of 42787

clear example why ta will be helpful. it's not perfect by any means, but better than blindly buying/selling (on emotions) yes, im touting TA as the best tool.. because time in and time out, i think TA proves itself on it's own ground.. ----------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- Subject: Technical Analysis - Beginners \| Previous \| Next \| Respond \| To: Richard Estes (7687 ) From: Terry Mitchell Friday, Jan 9 1998 9:23PM EST Reply # of 7702 Richard, you are so right. I am one of those who has bought stocks based on value & stories. In fact I still have a story stock in my portfolio. Story stocks can be a very nerve racking process to endure over time, especially when the price takes wild rides for no apparent reason. It is very interesting to read the threads on stocks where the price takes a big drop and people are asking what news caused it to happen. Well there was no news and it took a big drop anyway. I have also seen the reverse happen, big news with very little change in price. My plan is to leave that all behind me and move forward with TA. I have already learned alot you, Dave and others here reading this thread for the last couple of months. I still have an awfull lot to learn yet though.

To: freelyhovering who wrote (4731)	1/10/1998 2:16:00 PM
From: Chris	Respond to of 42787

notice that TA forewarned the oct 29? crash: Subject: Technical Analysis - Beginners \| Previous \| Next \| Respond \| To: Richard Estes (7687 ) From: Loren Saturday, Jan 10 1998 9:09AM EST Reply # of 7702 Richard - << For the true beginner, it probally is best to have left the market in Sept-OCT and been in money market funds. This game can take your money. << You're right... As well as charting individual stocks, I chart several market indices, including the NAZ composite. In the week ending 10/24/97, both my weekly DMI and MACD indicators gave a 'sell' on 'NAZ'. They are close to giving a buy, but not quite yet. Meanwhile, the NAZ is down from 1667 to 1555. If you are a dart-thrower, you would have almost certainly lost money. If you are a TA'er, you still might have. Theoretically, you can swim up a waterfall, but in reality it's quite hard!!! So, you better be sure of your system rules before you buck the overall market trend! Loren