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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome Wittamer who wrote (2323)	1/10/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: limtex	Respond to of 60323

there is probably now noquestion that world trade is going to decline a great deal more than anyone thought or more probably hoped for the last few months. On reflection I suppose one has to query the logic behind the idea of millions of americans and europeans saving for retirement in the equity markets with their growth over the last three years and actually belivieving that they are going to be able to cease productive work and take forein holidays and look after themselves for the rest of an ever increasing life. All the time this proccess being supported by a decreasing work force in the west while in the developing world (especially in the pacific and india) miiliions of workers at all skill levels enter the work force without nay of the social costs, health costs or retirement costs that we have got used to in the west. The overall cost of such labour and local facilities is lower by several orders of magnitude and whilst local consumption and high value research generated products can make up some difference for us it can not close the whole gap by a long way. So sooner or later something had to give and any talk along the lines of "well the market will be ok for the first few months of 98 but then we'll have a correction....." Well all that means is that we're going to get our correction right away. And of course the next thing will be that not only are stocks a poor source of annual growth but interest rates will drop to the point that investment yields will be 2%-3% (if that). So what does this mean for the future of investing. Well IMHO after a period of correction an average of say 6%-7% per annum grwoth for stocks overall BUT for really successful/inventive companies growth will still of course be the highest in the market and depending on how successful they are you could still have another MSFTor INTC. Everything I have seen so far leads me to the conclusion that SNDK will be in the group of successful companies. I think the biggest change is going to be that from now on it is going to be that much more difficult to pick a stock that will grow. For the last few years you could pick a stock that would grow that much more easily or just buy the index. Now it will be much more difficult and that it seems to me only mirrors the reality of business on an everyday basis. I suppose someone on this thread might take the growth that the markets have achieved over sat the last ten years and then work out where the market should be in say another five years then I wonder what sort of correction we should expect if over the fifteen years I have outlined stock showed an average annual growth of say 7%, 8% 9% or even as much as 10%. I'm not usre how valid this is over a fifteen year period but correct me if over a generation (25yrs) that order of growth is what the market delivers. I don't think this is pessimistic it just seems to me to be what is happening and what has happened over the long term.