Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (60208)	12/16/2017 2:30:44 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78740

Glad you thought there is opportunity with Newell also. I'm not sure I see as much earnings upside as you but hope you are right. I did like how the price had moved closer to book value and how proceeds of the dispositions were applied toward debt reduction, also I thought there was a good chance for improvement in net cash flow going forward over this quarter. I haven't followed the company very long and don't know what the story is about the Jarden acquisition and the dissenting shareholders, it looks like there are only a few left. I'm hoping the improved cash flow gets put to good use and that most of the downside risk has been dealt with. I see people focusing a lot on growth estimates and am trying to stay wary of growth estimates. I'm still in a losing position with KHC after 18 months but learned a few things in their latest quarterly financials. I've been trying to buy good value as represented by management looking after the company, the shareholders, and providing the return I expected. I bought KHC as I wanted a major food provider in the portfolio, although not happy with the total return so far I am still happy with the ongoing dividend return on my cost and knew when I made the expenditure that managements guidance was that they were going to spend '16 and '17 digesting the merger so I'm not looking to sell. I think I'll be watching net cash flow more in the coming year and believe there might be more than a few caught off guard focusing on operating cash flow. I think I have a tax liability now in the portfolio that I'm not even sure can be dealt with which is a shame as it looks like an excellent company. As a Canadian I think I am going to need to get some legal advice just to confirm if the liability exists, and if so to whom. Should be educational anyway, depending on what I learn I might sell this listing to limit a growing liability. I still have some cash I can put to use and although I am not trying to find a Graham target but just looking for value income balancing have been considering VZ, OMC or ETN. I have a few portfolio positions where I have lightened up yield expectations hoping for growth, Kroger, Visa and Comcast as I really like the businesses, the earnings and the cash flow the companies have. I don't like the insane PE I bought Visa at after watching it for a few years, and I don't like the number of shares weighing on Comcast's PE growth, and I knew my very first buy of Kroger was way to high. I like the companies and think they will be around for a long time so would like them in the portfolio - think more than 18 months is going to be required to find out if they were good buys though.

To: E_K_S who wrote (60208)	12/17/2017 10:09:11 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78740

NWL looks interesting - durable brands generating stron FCF trading at a reasonable valuation. The fact that they could dispose of underperforming brands for 12x EBITDA while the enterprise trades for <10x EBITDA tells us that this is undervalued by at least 20% relative to fair market values. I think I will buy a starter in this stock on Monday.

To: E_K_S who wrote (60208)	1/25/2018 10:29:29 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78740

Major strategic reset on the way at Newell Brands Newell Brands ( NWL -19.3%) falls hard after lowering its full year guidance. The company expects sales growth of 0.8% vs. +1.5% to +2.0% prior outlook and EPS to fall in range of $2.72 to $2.76 vs. $2.80 to $2.85 prior. Newell also revealed plans for a huge transformation that will see the company look to explore options for some industrial and commercial assets, as well as reduce its factory and warehouse footprint fall by 50%. Some of the brands that could be shopped include Rawlings, Goody, Rubbermaid Outdoor, Closet, Refuse and Garage and U.S. Playing Cards. "We are committed to achieving our transformation objectives and are taking decisive action with speed to adapt our agenda to the unprecedented volatility in our retailer landscape," says CEO Michael Polk. -------------------------------------------------- Was looking at their product portfolio and they do have several old brands that need to be sold and/or replaced. I suspect any sales will be seen as a fireside sales event and mat/could only get 75% on the dollar. I reduced the GN BV calculation and stock still seems under valued even after this news. Adjusting for the new EPS estimate and lower BV, the GN fair value drops to $34.00/share. Will let the dust settle and make another buy soon but any recovery will take months (if not over a year) to transform this company into a new leaner growth company. EKS