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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Canadian Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Underexposed who wrote (3)	12/18/2017 11:50:59 PM
From: Underexposed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65

Ok... this is the start of the evaluation of the stocks I selected earlier. The first is a marijuana stock. It is hard to avoid looking at this type of stock in Canada. Rather than the USA which is tackling the problem of marijuana legalization on a state by state basis... in Canada it is going to be legalized on a country basis within a year at the most... not only medical maryjane but casual use as well. Aphria Inc. [TSX:APH] is one of the major players in this area. Aphria Inc is licensed to produce and sell medical marijuana, including dried cannabis and cannabis oil, as a Licensed Producer under the provisions of the ACMPR. (Access to Cannabis for Medical Purposes Regulations) I also like this news Aphria enters into supplier agreement with Shoppers Drug Mart This is a major distribution step, though it is not a done deal yet and Shoppers Drug Mart must get Federal approval yet. I like to look at debt... I expect to see debt in this company.... it is basically a startup and there are many many costs associated with production and distribution. Balance sheet from the above link I find this information CAD in Thousands... 2017-08.......... 2017-05............. 2017-02.......... 2016-11.......... 2016-08 Current Debt ..................1,591.................1,643................. 1,606................. 743................. 732 Long Term Debt ...........31,359 ..............31,786 .............. 7,184 ........... 6,807 ........... 6,995 I like the structure of this debt... the consistency of it... no wild swings. Now let us see if they can support this debt with revenue Income Statement CAD in Thousands... 2017-08.......... 2017-05............. 2017-02.......... 2016-11.......... 2016-08 Total Revenue.................6,120.................5,718................. 5,119................ 5,227...............4,376 Net Revenue ................15,040 ..............(2,593) ............... 4,950 ................ 946 ................ 895 I really like this... the company is making money in a slow rise but consistent manner. I wish I had the ability to figure out why they lost money back in May... I guess it was not serious as the smacked it out of the park in the next quarter. This looks like a winner to me so far Technical analysis I have pretty much decided that I am going to buy this company so far... This procedure is more about where I will try to buy the stock, than should I buy it. Start with the P&F Chart What a rise in the last year....almost 300% rise so far. It is in a retrace at this moment though (can you blame investors from wanting to collect some profits at this point.) The P&F chart does not give me any hint of where the decline will stop. In a way this is good news since it means we can get this stock cheaper. The trigger chart does give us help in that regard. Let's start at the bottom first... the BBwidth decline show the current run is over.. we are entering a period of consolidation now... some rest from that climb. I think it should drop the BBWidth to about 30 at its highest and 10 at its lowest before we can anticipate a sudden upward movement. The reversal of the MACD confirms the run is over while the Slow Sto is still showing bullish meaning that if it stays up over 80 we can expect this situation to resolve itself in a positive way. In the main chart you can see a double top... now it is double tops as a candlestick but the first top was a negative candle so it will not show as a double top in a line chart but It is definitely a sign of a reversal to me. In a consolidation period, the share price tends to gravitate to the 20day SMA (dotted green line)... I do see a support point at $13.00... I think that would be a good place to set the limit buy. The Parabolic Sar in the main chart circle shows that a reversal is going to happen any time now. As I said there is a natural tendency to go to the 20daySMA and I assume that will happen shortly. the other indicators could not be more bullish right now... this retracement is not significant for the long run IMHO The Ichimoku chart shows something I missed in the Trigger chart... the share price gapped in early Dec... that gap started about at $12.00. The cloud to the right MAY be trouble if the decline is long... but everything is so bullish that I doubt it will be a long decline... look at the bullish distance between the thin blue red lines... the bullish rise of the On Balance Volume... the CCI is only mildly bullish but it reacts very fast. Conclusion I like this stock and it is hard to determine where to set the Buy price. The Trigger chart suggests $13.00 and the Ichimoku showing that gap favors $12.00 as a potential place. I am going to compromise in the middle for now @ $12.50/share I can always adjust this price as the chart develops further I will enter a Limit Buy for 2000 shares of Aphria Inc @ 12.50/share effective Dec 17/17 This order will stay effective for one month but I envision at least one modification in that buy price as time goes on. This order will represent about 1/5 of our investment poke of $100,000. This Friday I will post the status of this portfolio._____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Disclaimer: I am not a registered broker. I am retired and use Technical Analysis as the main tool in my investment decisions. Accept or reject my comments as you will, but do your own Due Diligence (DD) before making any decisions based on the information I provide. Underexposed