Is climate change REALLY the culprit causing California’s wildfires?
Anthony Watts / 7 hours ago December 14, 2017
We’re told that climate change caused or intensified California’s wildfires — and that such fires are getting worse. As usual for such scary stories, these claims are only weakly supported by science — except for the ones that are outright fabrications. See what scientists say and decide for yourself.By Larry Kummer. From the Fabius Maximus website.“If we keep fighting a war with fire, three things are going to happen. We’re going to spend a lot of money, we’re going to take a lot of casualties, and we’re going to lose.”
— Stephen Pyne, professor at Arizona State University (source: National Geographic).
<img data-attachment-id="98135" data-permalink="https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=98135" data-orig-file="" data-orig-size="" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="[]" data-image-title="2013: slowest Atlantic hurricane season in 30 years" data-image-description="A couple of days ago, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. updated his famous graph of hurricane drought, and despite some ribbing from me on what could happen in May 2014, has confidently extended the drought out to the start of the hurricane season in June 2014:
![]("https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/229a8-daysbtcat3plus2014.jpg?w=300")
Data here.
NOAA issues this press release today:
Slow Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close.
No major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin – first time since 1994
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Saturday, Nov. 30, had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982, thanks in large part to persistent, unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical Atlantic Ocean. This year is expected to rank as the sixth-least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950, in terms of the collective strength and duration of named storms and hurricanes.
“A combination of conditions acted to offset several climate patterns that historically have produced active hurricane seasons,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “As a result, we did not see the large numbers of hurricanes that typically accompany these climate patterns.”
Thirteen named storms formed in the Atlantic basin this year. Two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes, but neither became major hurricanes. Although the number of named storms was above the average of 12, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were well below their averages of six and three, respectively. Major hurricanes are categories 3 and above.
![]("http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/images/1365v1_20130606-Andrea-June6-7z_300.png")
Suomi NPP satellite peers into Tropical Storm Andrea, the first storm of the season. (Credit: NOAA/NASA)
Tropical storm Andrea, the first of the season, was the only named storm to make landfall in the United States this year. Andrea brought tornadoes, heavy rain, and minor flooding to portions of Florida, eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina, causing one fatality.
The 2013 hurricane season was only the third below-normal season in the last 19 years, since 1995, when the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began.
“This unexpectedly low activity is linked to an unpredictable atmospheric pattern that prevented the growth of storms by producing exceptionally dry, sinking air and strong vertical wind shear in much of the main hurricane formation region, which spans the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea,” said Bell. “Also detrimental to some tropical cyclones this year were several strong outbreaks of dry and stable air that originated over Africa.”
![]("http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/images/1461v1_20131118-STSMelissa_300.png")
OES East satellite tracks Subtropical Storm Melissa, the last storm of the season. (Credit: NOAA)
Unlike the U.S., which was largely spared this year, Mexico was battered by eight storms, including three from the Atlantic basin and five from the eastern North Pacific. Of these eight landfalling systems, five struck as tropical storms and three as hurricanes.
NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve flew 45 hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance missions over the Atlantic basin this season, totaling 435 hours–the fewest number of flight hours since at least 1966.
NOAA will issue its 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook in late May, prior to the start of the season on June 1.
==================================================
No mention of the failure of the predictions in 2013, nor the fact that this year goes against wild claims made by alarmists of increasing hurricanes due to global warming, something Pielke Jr. also illustrates with a new graph:
The graph below shows total US hurricane landfalls 1900 through 2013.
![]("https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/4a32d-uslandfalls1900to2013.jpg?w=300")
The five-year period ending 2013 has seen 2 hurricane landfalls. That is a record low since 1900. Two other five-year periods have seen 3 landfalls (years ending in 1984 and 1994). Prior to 1970 the fewest landfalls over a five-year period was 6. From 1940 to 1957, every 5-year period had more than 10 hurricane landfalls (1904-1920 was almost as active).
The red line in the graph above shows a decrease in the number of US landfalls of more than 25% since (which given variability, may just be an artifact and not reflecting a secular change). There is no evidence to support more or more intense US hurricanes. The data actually suggests much the opposite.
Dr Ryan Maue adds:
Here’s sorted list of North Atlantic hurricane ACE numbers from 1950-2013 — this year tied for 5th lowest on record t.co
" data-medium-file="" data-large-file="" class="aligncenter wp-image-98135" src="https://fabiusmaximus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/wildfire-earth.jpg" alt="Wildfire Earth" width="650" height="325" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; display: block; margin: 20px auto;">(1) Those California Wildfires!
 NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image of the Thomas Fire on December 13, 2017. Actively burning areas detected by MODIS’s thermal bands are outlined in red. Such hot spots are diagnostic for fire when they are accompanied by smoke. These hot spots are accompanied by copious amounts of smoke coming off the fire and trending northward. NASA image courtesy NASA Worldview application operated by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) project.
“Gov. Jerry Brown surveyed the devastation Saturday in Ventura …calling it ‘the new normal.’ …“This could be something that happens every year or every few years.’” { Source: LAT.}
Climate change is causing more wildfires! Or so we are told. That is a zombie climate myths — repeatedly said, repeatedly debunked by scientists, but too useful to die. When Brown made this claim in 2015 even the LAT said that “ Gov. Brown’s link between climate change and wildfires is unsupported, fire experts say.”
“{C}limate scientists’ computer models show only that global warming will bring consistently hotter weather in future decades. Their predictions that warming will bring more forest fires — mostly in the Rockies and at other higher elevations, while fires may actually decrease in Southern California — also are for future decades. Even in a warmer world, they say, land management policies will have the greatest effect on the prevalence and intensity of fire. …
“‘There is insufficient data,’ said U.S. Forest Service ecologist Matt Jolly. His work shows that over the last 30 years, California has had an average of 18 additional days per year that are conducive to fire. …
“Today’s forest fires are indeed larger than those of the past, said National Park Service climate change scientist Patrick Gonzalez. At a symposium sponsored by Brown’s administration, Gonzalez presented research attributing that trend to policies of fighting the fires, which create thick underlayers of growth, rather than allowing them to burn. ‘We are living right now with a legacy of unnatural fire suppression of approximately a century,’ Gonzalez told attendees. …
“Fire behavior specialist Jeff Shelton, who provided daily forecasts for the Rocky fire and, later, the Jerusalem fire, said he could not attribute their behavior to climate change. He cited the summer’s dry weather, an abundance of fuel created by a lack of previous fires, and steep slopes that allowed the fires to spread quickly. Ecologists said their behavior was typical of natural chaparral fires, which burn infrequently but intensely. …
“‘They are more and more common because we have more and more fuels,’ said Joaquin Ramirez of Technosylva, an international fire modeling company based in San Diego. …
Bureau of Land Management fire manager Jeff Tunnell {said} ‘One hundred years of fire suppression is building fuel beds,’ Tunnell said. ‘Almost any year can produce a fire like this one.'”
See the current wildfire stats compared to recent years. For a detailed debunking see this analysis by Cliff Mass (great, as usual): “ Are California Coastal Wildfires Connected With Global Warming: The Evidence Says No.” He is a Professor of Atmospheric Science at U WA.
<img data-attachment-id="73956" data-permalink="https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=73956" data-orig-file="" data-orig-size="" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="[]" data-image-title="Friday Funny – David Suzuki goes postal" data-image-description="
A Polite Discourse with Professional Climate Alarmist David Suzuki
Guest post by Jim Lakely of the Heartland Institute
Back in March, The Heartland Institute sent professional Canadian climate alarmist David Suzuki – formerly on the board of Canada’s notoriously left-wing David Suzuki Foundation – a copy of Rael Isaac’s excellent book, Roosters of the Apocalypse. Today, while rummaging through my over-filled inbox, I saw an envelope from this “esteemed scientist” that arrived two weeks ago. Even in the address he put down for Heartland’s world headquarters, Suzuki exposed his childish contempt for those who disagree with his faith-based climate views.
(See the envelope below)
![]("http://blog.heartland.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/IMG_0809.png")
Then there is the note Suzuki wrote on our cover letter for the book.
![]("http://blog.heartland.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/IMG_0811.png")
In case you couldn’t make that out, let me type it for you:
I am a scientist and I take great umbrage at being sent such a load of crap from a bullshit shill organization for the oil industry. You are the most anti-science group I can imagine.
David Suzuki.
Quite an imagination, considering. But Suzuki left off the Xs and Os. I’m crushed. At least I set him back $3.70 Canadian.
I guess David didn’t get the memo that we should tone down the rhetoric and try to get along. Of course he’s wrong about us, but defaming people who disagree is the only trick aging alarmists like him have left.
==============================================
WUWT Readers might recall this research effort by the same esteemed Canadian scientist:
![]("https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/susuki_santa_pole.jpg?w=640&h=533")
More here.
" data-medium-file="" data-large-file="" class="wp-image-73956 aligncenter" src="https://fabiusmaximus.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/global-warming.jpg" alt="A world on fire" width="250" height="140" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; display: block; margin: 20px auto;">
(2) But US wildfires are getting worse! Unprecedented!(a) See the graph that must not be seen, so journalists never show it.This myth has repeatedly been debunked, but is too useful to die. David B. South, Emeritus Professor, of Forestry at Auburn U, showed the actual data in his Senate testimony on 3 June 2014 (page 2). Bjorn Lomborg posted an updated version of his graph, using the same sources. Click to enlarge graph. Excerpt…
“Fires in California and elsewhere are devastating. But US fires are nowhere near the record. More likely about one-fifth of the records in 1930 and 1931. Reuters (along with many others), tell us the current US fires are historic …
“Yet, the official historical data of the United States tells a different story. Look at the Historical Statistics of the United States – Colonial Times to 1970 (p537). There we have statistics for area burnt since 1926 and up to 1970. Reassuringly, the data for 1960-1970 *completely overlap* (that from the National Interagency Fire Center}. This is the same data series.
“And when you look at the whole data series, *every year* from 1926-1952 – over a quarter of a century – saw higher, and mostly much higher forest areas burnt than the modern record set in 2015.
“This is not (as some have suggested) an artifact of the US gradually being deforested (and hence having less land to burn). The USDA Forest Service in their Historical Overview (p7) finds that the US “forest area has been relatively stable since 1910” – if anything slightly increasing since 1910 (which would help push up the burnt area slightly).”
<img data-attachment-id="115305" data-permalink="https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=115305" data-orig-file="" data-orig-size="" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="[]" data-image-title="The volcanic area near Bárðarbunga is erupting" data-image-description="A fissure eruption has started north of Dynjujökull, seen in the photo. A live YouTube stream is available below
Authorities in Iceland say the fissure is ~10 km north of Vatnajökull and currently measures about 100 meters long. The eruption started shortly after midnight on August 29 in Iceland, howevere the eruption seems to be subsiding in recent hours.
![]("https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/eruption_barc3b0arbunga.png") Another webcam view.
![]("http://www.ruv.is/files/imagecache/frmynd-stor-624x351/myndir/capture_104.png")
Mynd úr vefmyndavél Mílu.
Live YouTube stream:
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoISDUAPNgc[/embed]
Earthquakes:
![]("https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/iceland-earthquake_140829_0450.png") ![]("http://en.vedur.is/img/quake-legend_en.gif")
" data-medium-file="" data-large-file="" class="aligncenter wp-image-115305" src="https://fabiusmaximus.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/US-acres-burned-1926-2017.jpg" alt="US acres burned 1926-2017" width="675" height="476" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; display: block; margin: 20px auto;">(b) Incidence of wildfires in North America 1600-2000. Peaked in mid-19th C.“ Multiscale perspectives of fire, climate and humans in western North America and the Jemez Mountains, USA” by Thomas W. Swetnam et al. in Phil Trans B, 5 June 2016. Fires peaked in the mid-19th century! Click to enlarge the graph.
“The combined record of fire occurrence from more than 800 sites in western North America shows relatively high fire frequency prior to ca 1900, and a high degree of synchrony in both large and small fire years. The 15 largest and smallest fire years are labelled. A pronounced decrease in fire frequency occurred at the time of Euro-American settlement, coinciding approximately with the arrival of railroads, intensive livestock grazing, removal of many Native American populations, and subsequently organized and mechanized fire fighting by government agencies.”
(c) A smaller and more precise record: fires in Yosemite National Park. Peaked in mid-19th C.“ Climatic and human influences on fire regimes in mixed conifer forests in Yosemite National Park, USA” by Alan H. Taylor and Andrew E. Scholl in Forest Ecology and Management, 1 March 2012 (gated). Different data, same pattern — a peak in the mid-19th century, followed by a long decline. Click to enlarge.
Wildfires in Yosemite National Park: 1600-2000.
<img data-attachment-id="115313" data-permalink="https://wattsupwiththat.com/?post_type=feedback&p=115313" data-orig-file="" data-orig-size="" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="[]" data-image-title="Eric Worrall – 2014-08-29 01:25:17" data-image-description="You know there is hope for the world, when you read a story like this – a town full of beautiful Brazilian women is desperate for more male companionship, providing you are prepared to live by their rules.
The town was founded by a woman who was excommunicated by the church in 1891, for leaving her husband. Soon she was joined by other like minded women – and their tradition blossomed into the present day town of Noiva do Cordeiro, population 600 (mostly) women aged 20 – 35.
mirror.co.uk
Why talk about this unusual town in a climate blog? Because life is worth living, when there is a place this intriguing, a few hours flight away from where you are sitting right now. And the ability to live life to the full, and expose ourselves to exotic and unusual experiences on a whim, is what the fundamentalist killjoys on the alarmist side of the debate would excise from our lives.
AUTHOR: Eric Worrall
AUTHOR EMAIL: eworrall1@gmail.com
AUTHOR URL: mirror.co.uk
SUBJECT: WUWT story submission
IP: 123.211.140.203
Array
(
[Story Title] => Real life beautiful Brazilian Amazons want more men
[One line summary of story] => I know its not climate but read on… :-)
[Story body (HTML tags supported)] => You know there is hope for the world, when you read a story like this – a town full of beautiful Brazilian women is desperate for more male companionship, providing you are prepared to live by their rules.
The town was founded by a woman who was excommunicated by the church in 1891, for leaving her husband. Soon she was joined by other like minded women – and their tradition blossomed into the present day town of Noiva do Cordeiro, population 600 (mostly) women aged 20 – 35.
mirror.co.uk
Why talk about this unusual town in a climate blog? Because life is worth living, when there is a place this intriguing, a few hours flight away from where you are sitting right now. And the ability to live life to the full, and expose ourselves to exotic and unusual experiences on a whim, is what the fundamentalist killjoys on the alarmist side of the debate would excise from our lives.
[URL of story (if applicable)] => mirror.co.uk
[Your name as you wish it to display] => Eric Worrall
[Email] => eworrall1@gmail.com
[I have read and agreed to the submission guidelines] => Yes
)
" data-medium-file="" data-large-file="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-115313" src="https://fabiusmaximus.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Wildfires-in-Yosemite-National-Park-1600-2000-1.png" alt="Wildfires in Yosemite National Park 1600-2000" width="982" height="410" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; display: block; margin: 20px auto;">
(3) What about the rest of the world?The rest of the world never shared our Smokey the Bear obsession about preventing forest fires. This study shows that the total global area burned per year is less today than centuries ago — and the area has declined during the past few decades. See “ Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world” by Stefan H. Doerr and Cristina Santín in Phil Trans B, 5 June 2016. Red emphasis added.
“Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth’s surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses.
“However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago.
“Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined.
“Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.”
Wildfire occurrence (a) & area burnt (b) in the European Mediterranean region during 1980–2010.<img data-attachment-id="115297" data-permalink="https://wattsupwiththat.com/?post_type=feedback&p=115297" data-orig-file="" data-orig-size="" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="[]" data-image-title="Neal Kaye – 2014-08-28 20:13:44" data-image-description="Californians already pay the nation’s second highest gas tax at 68 cents a gallon — and now it will go up again in January to pay for a first-in-the-nation climate change law.
“I didn’t know that,” said Los Angeles motorist Tyler Rich. “It’s ridiculous.”
“I think it’s terrible,” added Lupe Sanchez, pumping $4.09-a-gallon gas at a Chevron near Santa Monica. “The economy, the way it is right now with jobs and everything, it’s just crazy.”
When gas prices go up, motorists typically blame oil companies, Arab sheiks and Wall Street speculators. This time they can blame Sacramento and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for passing a bill requiring California to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.
AUTHOR: Neal Kaye
AUTHOR EMAIL: bkk71@verizon.net
AUTHOR URL: foxnews.com
SUBJECT: WUWT story submission
IP: 98.119.160.6
Array
(
[Story Title] => California drivers brace for costly new gas tax
[One line summary of story] => Calif. gas prices going up in January due to bill requiring reduction in carbon emissions
[Story body (HTML tags supported)] =>
Californians already pay the nation’s second highest gas tax at 68 cents a gallon — and now it will go up again in January to pay for a first-in-the-nation climate change law.
“I didn’t know that,” said Los Angeles motorist Tyler Rich. “It’s ridiculous.”
“I think it’s terrible,” added Lupe Sanchez, pumping $4.09-a-gallon gas at a Chevron near Santa Monica. “The economy, the way it is right now with jobs and everything, it’s just crazy.”
When gas prices go up, motorists typically blame oil companies, Arab sheiks and Wall Street speculators. This time they can blame Sacramento and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for passing a bill requiring California to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.
[URL of story (if applicable)] => foxnews.com
[Your name as you wish it to display] => Neal Kaye
[Email] => bkk71@verizon.net
[I have read and agreed to the submission guidelines] => Yes
)
" data-medium-file="" data-large-file="" class="aligncenter wp-image-115297" src="https://fabiusmaximus.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Phil-TransB-wildfires-lt-trend-1-e1513041105322.jpg" alt="Phil TransB - long-term trend in wildfires" width="570" height="389" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; display: block; margin: 20px auto;">(4) Essential reading to understand the origins of these fires(a) “ How Fire, Once a Friend of Forests, Became a Destroyer” by Michelle Nijhuis in National Geographic — “The roots of today’s massive wildfires, says historian and former firefighter Stephen Pyne, lie in the old misconception that all fire is bad.” Pyne is a professor at Arizona State University (see his website), studying the history of wildfire and wildland firefighting in the U.S. and the world. Here are two key points, looking at the results of a century of fire suppression in the US — and looking forward.
“There’s a huge cost to removing all fires from landscapes that have grown up accustomed to them. Fuels — dry wood, leaves, other materials — build up in the forest, and the whole ecological integrity of the system unravels. Simply trying to eliminate fire helps to promote conditions in most places that make for more severe fires with larger consequences and damages, making them more uncontrollable. It costs more and more money to try to keep a lid on the situation, so there’s an economic cost. There’s also a cost in lives — civilian lives, and firefighter lives. …
“Sustainability is an overused and sloppy term, but this is not a sustainable project. We cannot continue to do this. …
“We’re not helpless. We can keep these fires from burning prized assets if we wish. But I think managed wildfire is an acknowledgement that despite our bold talk, we’re not going to get ahead of the problem, and that we have to manage it. The climate, the fuels, the invasive species, the insect outbreaks, and whatever else is coming at us — there’s no way we’re going to get ahead of most of this stuff. We’re only going to do that very selectively.”
(b) The LAT discusses how we got here and how to better cope in the future: “ California’s deadliest wildfires were decades in the making. ‘We have forgotten what we need to do to prevent it’.”
(c) The same debate is taking place in Canada, with fires blamed on climate change, while most scientists disagree. Such as Blair King’s “ We Can’t Blame Climate Change For The Fort McMurray Fires” at the HuffPost ( he’s an environmental scientist) and “ Science not there: global warming not fueling Alberta’s wildfire” by Thomas Richard at the Examiner.
(d) The NYT reviews two new books about wildfires, pointing to the obvious causes.
“As detailed in Michael Kodas’s bracing Megafire: The Race to Extinguish a Deadly Epidemic of Flame and Edward Struzik’s drier Firestorm: How Wildfire Will Shape Our Future , today’s forests are often clogged with desiccated vegetation because — unlike in countless millenniums past — they are seldom cleansed by naturally occurring blazes. With such an abundance of fuel to feast on, wildfires like those currently raging in California have become increasingly ruinous and intense.
“The bureaucrats and scientists who have tried to warn against the folly of treating every wildfire like a mortal foe have discovered their message is a nonstarter. That’s partly because so many businesses are keen to preserve the status quo: About 40% of America’s wildfire-fighting resources, from helicopters that can cost as much as $7,000 an hour to catering services that charge $100,000 a day, are now provided by private companies. ‘Most don’t get paid if they’re not actively fighting a fire,’ Kodas points out, ‘so they lobby to fight as many fires as they can.’ …
“But the most powerful constituency in favor of perpetuating the futile war on wildfires is the people who’ve chosen to inhabit risky terrain. According to a 2015 study, America’s 13 Western states contain 1.1 million homes deemed ‘highly vulnerable to wildfires’ because of their proximity to forests full of tinder. There is no easy way to convince the owners of those homes that a fire they can glimpse from their bedrooms should be allowed to burn for long-term strategic purposes. Nor have denizens of the so-called “wildland-urban interface” been receptive to the idea that controlled burns, set and supervised by government employees, are necessary to thin out cluttered woodlands. In fact, when the Forest Service attempted to burn off some high-risk brush near Prescott, Ariz., a few years ago, angry locals threatened to kill anyone involved in the operation.”
(5) A look at some of the peer-reviewed literature about firesRed emphasis added.
(a) Always start with the IPCC: from Working Group 1 report of AR5, section 6.8.1. This does not support claims of increased fires today, or that we will see large increases in the near future.
“Models predict spatially variable responses in fire activity, including strong increases and decreases, due to regional variations in the climate–fire relationship, and anthropogenic interference. Wetter conditions can reduce fire activity, but increased biomass availability can increase fire emissions. Using a land surface model and future climate projections from two GCMs, Kloster et al. (2012) projected fire carbon emissions in 2075–2099 that exceed present-day emissions by 17 to 62% depending on scenario. Future fire activity will also depend on anthropogenic factors especially related to land use change.”
(b) “ Using Fire Return Interval Departure (FRID) Analysis to Map Spatial and Temporal Changes in Fire Frequency on National Forest Lands in California” by Hugh D. Safford and Kip M. Van de Water, US Forest Service research paper, January 2014. A detailed look at the fire history of Northern and Southern California.
(c) “ Examining Historical and Current Mixed-Severity Fire Regimes in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of Western North America” by Dennis C. Odion et al. at PLoS ONE, 14 February 2014 — Abstract.
“There is widespread concern that fire exclusion has led to an unprecedented threat of uncharacteristically severe fires in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex. Laws) and mixed-conifer forests of western North America. These extensive montane forests are considered to be adapted to a low/moderate-severity fire regime that maintained stands of relatively old trees.
“However, there is increasing recognition from landscape-scale assessments that, prior to any significant effects of fire exclusion, fires and forest structure were more variable in these forests. Biota in these forests are also dependent on the resources made available by higher-severity fire. A better understanding of historical fire regimes in the ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America is therefore needed to define reference conditions and help maintain characteristic ecological diversity of these systems.
“We compiled landscape-scale evidence of historical fire severity patterns in the ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests from published literature sources and stand ages available from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program in the USA. The consensus from this evidence is that the traditional reference conditions of low-severity fire regimes are inaccurate for most forests of western North America. Instead, most forests appear to have been characterized by mixed-severity fire that included ecologically significant amounts of weather-driven, high-severity fire.
“Diverse forests in different stages of succession, with a high proportion in relatively young stages, occurred prior to fire exclusion. Over the past century, successional diversity created by fire decreased. Our findings suggest that ecological management goals that incorporate successional diversity created by fire may support characteristic biodiversity, whereas current attempts to “restore” forests to open, low-severity fire conditions may not align with historical reference conditions in most ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America.”
(d) “ Extreme Fire Season in California: A Glimpse Into the Future?” by Jin-Ho Yoon et al. in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, December 2015 — Conclusion:
“Our result, based on the CESM1 outputs, indicates that man-made global warming is likely one of the causes that will exacerbate the areal extent and frequency of extreme fire risk, though the influence of internal climate variability on the 2014 and the future fire season is difficult to ascertain.”
(e) “ Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests” by John T. Abatzogloua and A. Park Williams in PNAS, 18 October 2016.
“Increased forest fire activity across the western United States in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures.
“Although numerous factors aided the recent rise in fire activity, observed warming and drying have significantly increased fire-season fuel aridity, fostering a more favorable fire environment across forested systems. We demonstrate that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the cumulative forest fire area since 1984. This analysis suggests that anthropogenic climate change will continue to chronically enhance the potential for western US forest fire activity while fuels are not limiting.”
Although this is an outlier in the literature, it is endlessly cited. This study ignores the effect of “suppression and wildland fire use policies, ignitions, land cover (e.g., exurban development), and vegetation changes”, although they “have likely added to the area burned across the western US forests.”
(f) “ Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States” by Jennifer K. Balcha et al. in PNAS, 14 March 2017. See an interview with the lead author in “ Who is starting all those wildfires? We are” by Warren Cornwall in Science, 12 September 2017. Abstract.
“The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires.
“Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal “fire niche” in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2 , the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2 , primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States.
“Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards.”
(6) For More InformationFor more information see posts about the keys to understanding climate change, about droughts, and especially these…
Key facts about the drought that’s reshaping California. The Texas drought ends; climate alarmists wrong again! Are 30 thousand species going extinct every year? Lessons learned from the end of California’s “permanent drought”. What you need to know about hurricanes and their trends. Good news about CO2 emissions. Progress to a better world. A story showing why America’s forests are burning.Added after publication by Anthony:
Advertisements |
