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To: Electric who wrote (32747)	1/10/1998 1:44:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

You'd lose a lot of money that way.. the market's been heading down going into the full moon (Jan12th). Not to minimize the value of moon phase investing theory.. but there's a lot of coincident stuff out there which probably has credibility equal to how many believe it to be true. Recently analysts' Acampura and Arch Crawford have been unusally good on predicting the market's moves coming from entirely different perspectives. Personally, I noticed I tend to buy a new car during market crash years. I'm planning on getting a new car this year... what should I do, put off my purchase to hold the market up or sell everything and get the car. Aren't most observations and human events that can be expressed as cycles available to being in and out of phase with cyclic market observations?

To: Electric who wrote (32747)	1/10/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: randy kay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Patrick, for physiological reasons I find your moon post very intriguing. I'm sure we have all heard stories about how erratic people tend to be on or near full moons, I have a uncle who worked on the police force for many years and he said that full moons were always trouble and he is not a hocus pocus kind of guy but even he swore by it. If the moons gravity effects peoples chemical balance and make them edgy and irrational, then I can't see any reason why the markets should not move accordingly. Interesting angle. Randy

To: Electric who wrote (32747)	1/10/1998 3:27:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Electric...dont forget about ole' Rebecca being able to call Jan 8 based astrology (I think that is what is was) Same Die Lisa

To: Electric who wrote (32747)	1/10/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

I think the moon is affecting this server, that's for certain. My feelings are ambivalent, but ever since I first came across this (about a year ago) I've been amazed at the hit rate. Some times I trade it "just because"...with no other reason. I know the data was backtested at least to the late 1980s, I would have to call Camp to ask him precisely how far. I actively look for other stuff on it, as it shows up I'll let you know. Welles Wilder and Jim Sloman created a trading technique called "Delta" which is predicated on lunar phases. It was not done deliberately. As Sloman tried to figure out if there was an 'order' in the markets he charted movements over periods of time, saw a relationship, but could not divine the key. One day while he sat in his beach house he glanced at a tide chart his girl friend used to determine the 'best' time to swim. It hit him that the tide chart was based on lunar cycles and he overlaid market charts with lunar cycles and saw a correlation. He and Wilder evolved this into the Delta trading system.

To: Electric who wrote (32747)	1/10/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

I just read Jim's reply and realized I missed something you said. No, the stats don't suggest you should hold until the new moon. They only suggest that the days/time span suggest that is not a wise time to be long. As a counter to what Jim puts forth...at least, what I think he is saying is that everyone believes that the market will react this way or that because of the lunar effect...I would have to disagree. I disagree first of all, because (for example) how many of you have even heard of this? Secondly, how many even know on what day a full moon occurs in any given month? Thirdly, how many will remember this next month? Admittedly, this is arcane stuff. I know traders that trade using the Stock Market Almanac, or whatever it's called. One example is the last 3 days of the month and the first 2 of the following month do such and such. I don't even remember what it is. But there are 5 traders at Lehman that trade that way every month for their own accounts. 5 days a month....60 days a year...and made 22% on their money last year. When the system was explained to me by one of them on Friday I said "Oh sure! I remember that method!!". For the life of me I cannot remember it now. But I know (without having been told) they read it in the Almanac, which makes it a hell of a lot more popular a method than the lunar method.