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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: studdog who wrote (2996)	1/10/1998 3:05:00 PM
From: Jyoti sharma	Respond to of 78734

Karl, I own CY, CS and looking to buy KLAC below 25. CY and CS have limited downside risk. CY is cyclical but selling close to its book value which has been in the past an attractive enty point.. CY's chaiman Rodgers was on CNBC recently and explained its current problems. I am exepecting CY to earn over a dollar in 1999 and trade around 20 by early 1999. CS as you know is a turnaround. Networking market is growing >20%. CS still has good R&D. The big money will be made in future with new generation of networking equipment based on ATM technology. My guess is CS's new management understands this. Cisco or any one else for that purpose does not have a lock on new technology. The biggest risk with CS is that they may not have enough money for their R&D effort. ATM will require major upgrade of networking equipment with in two or three years. Their is a remote possibility CS may be acquired by Siemens or Alcatel at much higher price. KLAC has a major portion of the semiconductor test equipment market locked in. However there is too much semiconductor manufacturing capacity right now and upgrade to newer technology fab's may not occur in 1998. KLAC along with AMAT also may have lower earnings this year. For the next semiconductor cycle I will like to own WFR, AMAT and KLAC. I am long WFR now and hoping to pick up AMAT and KLAC in low 20's. Best wishes and good investing Jyoti

To: studdog who wrote (2996)	1/10/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78734

Karl C. Wenner: re your finds. I'll give you some feedback. Seem like these stocks are better than some of your last year's mentions. Or at least closer to my way of thinking -g-. I wouldn't be surprised to see a package of tech stocks such as you've selected do very well overall (that is, CY,CS, and KLAC). I too am trying to do this. (You might want to check out NTAIF mentioned by Paul K. in a recent post here. It would be a typical value stock - and might do well as part of a package of diverse tech stocks. I own it, but I bought at higher prices BA (Before Asia -g-). Tough part of holding a package is that one has to have the fortitude to endure. Morrow Snowboards seems like it must've shown up on some sort of value screen. If they can't sell their product (sales have decreased), and their inventory is their product, then I wouldn't want to assume that book value provides either a margin of safety or a decision point to buy/sell the stock. Rainforest almost similar. Apparently 3 of their restaurants (or whatever they are called) have had decreasing sales. Article out somewhere - Motley Fool? - where author asks something about just how many customers will continue to buy their profitable gorilla t-shirts that they sell in these places? My point: maybe there's a good reason why this stock is down and might stay down. For me, forward pe of 13 for this co. is too expensive. Again and always-- JMO, and I've been wrong many, many times and unfortunately - recently, recently. -g-. Paul Senior