Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (32748)	1/10/1998 3:08:00 PM
From: randy kay	Respond to of 58727

Donald - Monday happens to be a full moon (ooooo...spooky). I think this week is going to be very touchy because of the earnings reports. I plan to do a strangle for sure. The media is so far putting a very bad slant on the Indonesian problem. The real irony here will be if Indonesia is somehow responsible for any major market downfall. God, If that happens they should take than damned Suharto out to the Bre-X jungle and throw him down the biggest hole they can find. Randy

To: donald sew who wrote (32748)	1/10/1998 6:41:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

This is based on lunar phases not astrology. Astro-trading is more along this following line; Jupiter rules expansion so Astro-traders watch to see what sign Jup goes into. On Feb. 4th Jup goes into Pieces so that would be an excellant time to go long oils. That's pretty basic Astro-trading. Lunar phases are something else, they are just natural phenomenae. Correct. Monday is a full moon in Cancer. What correlation has statistical relevance to Cancer? I have not backtested Cancer Full Moons so I have no clue. It would be interesting to find out if lunar position with respect to Constellations produce different effects. But I don't know. It is interesting that your technicals closely mirror the lunar stats. Perhaps you could go back and see how they conformed during the past 30 events. As I recall, one needs at least 30 samples in a correlation study of this type before you can try to draw conclusions. As far as your noting that Tuesday is at variance with the lunar effect, remember the lunar effect is not 100% accurate. I recall times it did not work for a specific day in the series, but it has been pretty good for the span of time suggested. The 3 day issue is of some interest to me. One thing Camp told me once was that there was a correlation between external events and subsequent moves in the market. He noted 3 days was the normal amount of time to expect change. I remember, for example, Abby Cohen came out with an "All is Well" speech last year. The next day Camp told me that Goldman traders loaded the boat with 2,000 OEX puts 24 points out of the money. (Goldman employs Cohen). 3 days later the market started rockin' and those puts at one point were 11 points in the money. Very often, if you take the time to look, it is surprising to see a news article...front page...in any paper/magazine. NY Times, USA Today, US News, The Toledo Gazette, whatever. If the story has something to do with the market and it repeats in a few different papers think about what day it is. It's surprising to see how often that 3 days later something affects the market completely opposite to the intent of the article. If the papers are all saying "DOW 9000!!! (Traders looking for 10!!!)" sure as shootin' 3 days later people will be scratching their heads wondering what just happened. There are correlaries to this too but I don't wish to get too belletristic with it.