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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (12923)	1/10/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: studdog	Respond to of 18056

I2 Thanks for your comments on valuation. I too feel pretty comfortable with 47 -49 bucks for the S&P. The factor I am not comfortable with is 10 year bond yields. If they fall, then stocks are certainly pretty attractive at current prices. It seems some very smart people can make a case for bonds to either fall or go up (see Barron's). I also like your scenario in the next few years regarding emerging (currently submerging) markets. Karl

To: Investor2 who wrote (12923)	1/10/1998 2:20:00 PM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

>> based on the assumption that your opinions are correct: Everyone turns out to be wrong in some respects and correct in others. The hard part is remaining open to suggestions by others that you may be incorrect. 1 & 2 sound logical to me Number 3 I am not so sure about. If the dollar reverses, interest rates may not be so low. Foreign selling of bonds will result in an increase in rates. Let me state that I have not been a gold bug since the 70's but am once again starting to look at it. It is getting almost impossible to find even a single positive article about the stuff in the popular press. There are lots of articles out there declaring it dead forever. This is good contrarian indicator much like the famous 82 article in business week declaring stocks to be dead forever. I am not sure what to make about the positive supply demand fundamentals vs Central Bank overhang vs the negative paper derivatives. Gold could just as easily drop further as bounce up at this moment BWDIK. If you have a centuries long view, gold has actually performed better in a defaltionary environment than an inflationary one. For now I am following various threads and watching the market with a wait and see attitude. Number 4 I agree with, but I am going to be cautious. I like to arrive at a party fashionably late and leave before it's over. There have always been and will always be lots of parties if you look in enough areas. Lot's of unhappy people jumped in to SEA markets when they were down 30%. I will wait long enough to see a solid reversal which I think maybe as much as two years away. I am also looking for at least a partial cleanup of the previous corrupt practices. S. Korea looks the most promising in this respect. S. Korea is full of highly educated hard working determined people.