To: Double Dipper who wrote (2987 ) 1/10/1998 4:55:00 PM From: Todd D. Wiener Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14266
I still expect .70 for Q4. If THQI can achieve these numbers (possible, but not guaranteed), and the stock remains around $20-23 for the next several weeks, we will see a buying panic when the Q4 results are released. Even though this the readers of the SI and AOL threads may be informed, don't be so sure about Wall Street. THQI is still relatively unknown, with only 3 brokerage analysts following it. THQI's rarely ever mentioned in an article about video game companies (perhaps because THQI is classified as a Travel or Toy stock). If THQI reports a 50% upside surprise in February, with an earnings increase of more than 400%, the stock will jump into the 30s very quickly. I'd be very surprised if this doesn't happen, assuming THQI makes my estimates. I think that THQI needs to report at least .55 in Q4 to rise substantially and sustain the rise. A few quarters ago, I said that THQI would begin to report earnings on a completely new level beginning in Q3 (but since Pax was delayed, it's now Q4). I believe I used the phrase "earnings explosion" to describe the next several quarters. It would correspond with the stock price embarking on a "higher degree of uptrend." In other words, if you were to have extrapolated a trendline from 1996 or 1997 into the future, it would not reflect the substantial earnings growth during the next few years. In order to reflect the expanding earnings, the long-term uptrend would have to become more vertical in slope. I mentioned the long-term head-and-shoulders bottoming formation, and its likely termination at $13. Sure enough, when THQI broke $13, it increased its rate of ascent. It retested $13 in late October and has rebounded. The stock is only resting before its next explosive move upwards. This should happen in February-March, ASSUMING the fundamentals continue to "explode." I truly believe that THQI's "new uptrend" has only recently begun. Assuming fundamentals continue to improve at their current rate, I don't anticipate THQI peaking for another 2 years, at maybe 3 times its current price. If I believe all of this, why did I recently sell some stock? Because I can certainly be wrong. But I'm still holding over 96% of my shares. That's a fair assessment of my confidence level in THQI. Todd Also- We may see a press release this week for Nitro.