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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Esteban who wrote (10393)	1/10/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: ivan solotaroff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79243

Esteban, Another Godlike post, your #10394. My only point would be in re your "TSEMF ...For the 12/15 signal, the declining volume method gets you out at the top of the first wave. Ivan this 12/15 PGDCEB signal is very successful and at the same time looks like one of your falling knives." Here we might well be in massive disagreement. (It might equally well be yet another time in which we don't understand each other.) TSEMF, which I believe I poo-poohed at the time (maybe that was TRKN) is, in my current estimation, the Mozart of the cattery: A perfect siren of a catcall. The "falling knife" you mention is something I must have conveyed very inaccurately (it's not my term, as you probably know). True, TSEMF began a high-volume collapse three days prior to its signal day (the start of that collapse, retrospectively, is what should put the felinologist on a cat-stalking-mouse-like Deathwatch). Coupled with the signal day, there was a 30% collapse; perhaps that is what you're referring to as a falling knife? The flat bottom that I see in that chart, and which I insist on before I hand over my half of the two keys needed to gain entree into the cathouse (the Lloyds of London approach to safes on English trains, y'know) is: the 20 days prior to that collapse: They show the gradual exhausting of any and all speculation based merely on the gap itself. That flat bottom, and the length it takes to be established, IMO, is what sets up the final coup de grace that makes the animal purr so VERY VERY OBEDIENTLY. Look at those twenty days and you'll see something rather astounding: A mere ten-percent range of motion. Think of it: A stock has collapsed. It's a volatile, volatile market, in which semiconductors are getting ROCKED. It's like shooting at a corpse. It doesn't move, even with a bulls-eye. That is EXHAUSTION. That is a BOTTOM. The signal day is an indication that a sub-cellar of that bottom has been blasted into by a piglike Market Maker. The upward ticks from that sub-cellar, IMO, is the market as a whole (think of the increased volume) rallying as one in revulsion as they espy the rotting corpse of the unknown dead-cat soldier thus disentombed. The resulting upward march is the spring of a dead, but still very rabid cat slinking from the horror, the horror, the horror ... (cats don't get rabies) BTW, TSEMF, IMO, was a post-12/15 hold until this Friday, and might still be. Until two (or was it three) days ago, there was no spike in volume, and therefore no sell signal generated. If you were playing that one on margin, Esteban, that's almost 100% in three weeks. THAT may not be the 100% accuracy I'm pining for, but it's double the ducats. Doug, and I can hear you breathing out there. If TSEMF survives Monstrous Monday, or whatever Sue Herrera calls it, might be well be the IBM-like Phoenix you referenced earlier today. Ivan PS: This is the post of a deranged person.

To: Esteban who wrote (10393)	1/11/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 79243

Esteban, In going over your review of SGI I find that 12/15 was not a signal day. I would not include 12/19 as a signal day since the volume was only 5300 greater than the 18th. So, the only SGI signal in Dec. was on 12/29. The peak from there on 1/5 was the typical "no advance on higher volume" day. It would have been difficult to exit that day though considering emotion associated with volume as the day progressed. The next day exhibits a break of the daily trendline and would have triggered an exit. The 11/24 signal gave a peak that was characterized by declining volume on 12/5 and 12/8. This and the 1/5 peak were common top indications (but we know how that goes in realtime). A strict use of trendlines gives a clean exit on 12/9 but the first few days of the 11/24 signal are the problem. So far, all I have come up with is the one or two (depending on your antacid supply) ticks below the signal day low as a defense during the first 3 post-signal days. After those three days, the daily trendline exit seems optimal For TEAL, I think pre-gap avg. daily volume should be considered. OXHP's signal day was a bit on the early side. Perhaps that is why it was such a successful short. After 3 post-signal days, the daily trendline exit works very well. TSEMF gave a trendline exit on post-signal day 4 (12/19) For the time value I suggest that was optimal since sitting in it over the next 5 days would have been nearly excruciating after having an opportunity at a successful exit. It eventually moved up more but by that time signals on other stocks were occurring. ESOL is such an aging cat that it has reverted to a rolling stock. Buy at 3 1/4 and sell at 4 1/4 kinda stuff. OCAD on 12/29 was not a signal day. Volume requirement not met. I don't think OCAD has had one yet unless you think there could be a case made for designating the 30th as a signal day given the low is equal to the "new low" 29th with volume confirmation. That might make things a bit messy down the road but I'm willing to consider anything (before I toss it out the window >>ggg<<). I think what comes out of it all is that getting in on the signal day is getting in at the bottom. A rare feat. I wouldn't be too concerned with getting out at the top, just with making a high percentage of successful trades. 4 to 10 days to lock in 10 to 20% per signal is pretty lucrative. Using the daily trendline accomplishes that and what the hell, there's alot of cats out there. I'm ready to focus on impending signal days and work the trade for what the trendline or the stoploss gives and treat it by the book. It's more businesslike that way IMO. Doug R