Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (1046202)	1/3/2018 5:04:54 PM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 1583869

Cool. Well, good fortune to us both this year! It could be a volatile one.

To: Rarebird who wrote (1046202)	1/26/2018 11:02:04 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1583869

Rarebird, whew! This bull market is relentless! Looks like your chart projections have been correct so far. I'm seeing something weird in my portfolio correlations. In 2H'17, my portfolio was capturing 49% of the upside to the S&P500 but only 21% of the downside, measured each day and then averaging over time. Now in 2018, it is only capturing 12% of the upside, but 35% of the downside. So my total average returns are suffering, and worse, my allocation is not protecting me as much as I'd like on down days. Still making good money, but am watching as bonds are getting hammered along with stocks on overall down days, whereas, bonds are not rallying as much when stocks are having a good day. I especially don't understand it, because I'm heavy in short dated treasuries and TIPS, which should perform well in this environment of Fed rate hikes, deficits increasing, and weak dollar policy. I have not changed my target allocation, but my actual allocation has drifted upwards in stockholdings due to the bull market. So now I'm at around 23% stocks (up from 20% last summer), 44% bonds (down from 45%), and 33% cash (down from 35%). Overall portfolio is up this year, though, which is nice. Anyway, not sure what this means, but I am watching a character change in the markets. It's like the markets have become even more manic in stocks and it is punishing bonds more. I definitely understand the punishing of bonds part. We have some bit of QT and rate hikes going on, more debt about to flood the market from more deficit spending due to the tax bill just passed, and you have a weak dollar policy by the Trump admin. as articulated by Mnuchin, which puts pressure on bond prices. But this stock market bull is starting to feel more like a FOMO melt-up. What are you seeing and thinking?