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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DAN KACKLEY who wrote (2097)	1/11/1998 2:09:00 AM
From: Art C.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8220

What is "weekness"? A week is 7 days of the year. If you lack strength, then it is spelled "weak". Your can make a chart tell you anything that you want to. I have the same charts, and I see nothing like you see---at least for the next 3 months or so. This Asian thing has for sure gotten to be a pain in the ass, and it is certainly going to come to rest squarely in our laps at some point in the near future, but for the moment I will not discount Gerstner's primary goal--which is to keep the stock price going forward. Art

To: DAN KACKLEY who wrote (2097)	1/11/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Bill Martin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8220

Re: You will see a wedge pattern closing very soon Everyone has a slightly different way of doing this Dan, but when I draw the short term trend lines you talk about I get parallel horizontal channels. As you say, I leave out the outlier points at the high of November, but I also clip off a couple outlier lows in late October. As Elder says, leave out the few fringe players and try to look at what the mass of people trading in the market are doing. If you accept the two horizontal lines defineing a channel (which you certainly don't have to accept), then it leads to an intersection with the long term uptrend line that you mentioned sometime at the end of the first quarter maybe. I take this to be a generally positive chart -- not outrageously so. ...and IBM's historical 1st qtr declines for the last two years, ... Actually 1997 is the only year I see it's been down substantially in Q1. In 1996 it rose from 43 to 56 during 1Q96 (+30%), and then dropped substantially in Q2. In 1995 it rose in Q1. In 1994 it kind of bounced up and down with a slight loss in Q1. All in all, I tend to see Q1 as a generally positive quarter for IBM. Another view, FWIW .... Bill