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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (15080)	1/11/1998 5:39:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69962

Jim, RE: FIBR I am glad you are making profit. I am standing aside and paper trading a short term system for the most part right now. In the mean time, the investor side of my portfolio is starting to look like a mindfield. At least most of it is only lost profit. I agree with you about some real nice bargains starting to appear. If you're friend is still interested in NN as an investment , it is starting to come close to my buy range from a fundamental point of view right now. I will need to re-look at the fundamentals this weekend to be sure nothing has changed. Technically it is not done selling yet though. These are some stray thought on deflation. 1) Cash and bonds are king in deflationary times as you can buy the same assets for less money. The longer you wait the cheaper it gets. All cycles whether inflationary or deflationary come to an end. Like every thing timing is key. You can do well if you pick up assets at fire sale prices and unload them when the economic cycle changes. 2) Deflation is not the scary boogie man economist are making it out to be. A little deflation like a little inflation is not a bad thing. Lower commodity prices and lower interest rates make for lower manufacturing, borrowing, sales and operating cost without effecting operating margins. The rate at which deflation occurs and the duration will be what causes the problem. 3) Real interest rates given the rate of inflation remain high and can still come down. This could help to keep the economy expanding. 4) The instabliity in the currency is the biggest problem. Mild deflation with stable currencies is not an economic disaster. My broker mentioned that Greenspan wrote a paper on deflation in a high real interest rate environment a few years back. Do you know anything about it ? Have a good weekend. Harry