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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (14384)	1/11/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian, I consider Japan a "wild card" at this time. Their financial exposure to foreign loans and outstanding debt in Asian and South American countries has me very concerned. I expect they will try to hide their true financial situation behind their traditional stoic fascade. If Japan's big banks have large losses it could make our "Savings and Loan debacle" we suffered during the early/mid 90's look like a cake walk. Their banks have loaned very large sums of money on real estate loans that have decreased in value and might have decreased by 30-40% more in the last 2 months due to the currency devaluations in many Pac-Rim countries. If the Japanese belly up, we will be in for a world-wide recession for several years or at least in a deflation driven economy. I mentioned this possible scenario some months back, but it still is a distinct possibility. BB