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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (14390)	1/11/1998 10:28:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

**Slightly OT** Re:Abby said she was looking at a conservative high of 8700 this year on the DOW. JMO but I think all of the Dow talk in nonsense. In my estimation, that is probably the most overvalued basket of stocks in our market. Trading at ~20X this year eps, most of them will see single digit growth rates. On the other side of the spectrum are the equipment stocks. Notice I did not paint a wide swath and say technology. There are many in theis sector still susceptible IMO like MSFT, INTC etc. INTC is down from their recent highs by 30%, but their eps should basically be flat YOY, not warranting high values. But AMAT, even with the slashed forecasts, could still grow eps 40% this year and it is trading at about 13X FY98. This for a company growing 2-3X that of any DJIA stock. Yet it will not get it's stamp of approval from many of the top-tier analysts since the stock is more volatile and thus they have a greater chance of looking like fools. So they stick with the no-nonsense names like INTC and MSFT. You can only recommend a stock as a Strong Buy for so long before the fundamentals have caught up; what we are now seeing in some of the large techs. A message to all analysts and pundits: Let's stop all of this Dow 15,000 talk. IMHO, that is the index which could lead to a fall of the entire market. Making outlandish forecasts like these does not help that situation either. Just my .02 Brian