Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (78472)	1/9/2018 6:18:17 PM
From: Elroy	1 Recommendation Recommended By Kirk © Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

Yeah, some "funny" stuff going on. I don't think you can expect to get good indicators of meaningful increasese in NAND production from the NAND makers themselves. The MU management team has the motivation to keep the NAND buyers thinking that production will be unable to meet demand for as long as possible. The view drives higher NAND prices. Why would a NAND maker say otherwise? So one the one hand they will be saying there will be no oversupply, demand will eat it all up. On the other hand their financial motivation with all their fabs is to produce as much as possible as fast as possible, regardless of price. If they don't produce more now, their competitors will, and whoever produces the most the fastest gets the largest chunk of the high gross margin sales. So the will all produce as much volume as possible, while trying to keep the NAND prices high by talking up demand and talking down supply. There was an article by the Phison CEO yesterday saying that NAND prices were going to fall by 30% in Q1. Why would he say that? Well.....his company is a buyer of NAND, he probably wants everyone to think NAND is entering oversupply, prices are going to collapse, so hold off on buying as long as you can so the prices can collapse even more. Ya gotta remember, these management guys have financial motivation for the market to think a certain way about supply (tight = NAND maker, loose = NAND buyer). == Here's the Phison article taipeitimes.com Phison Electronics Corp (????), a Taiwanese supplier of NAND flash memory controllers and modules, expects stimulated demand this quarter thanks to a 30 percent price correction for NAND flash memory chips, putting the industry back on a healthier path, a company executive said.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (78472)	1/10/2018 11:00:24 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Recommended By Return to Sender Sam Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

There is an answer from Harlan Sur of JPM. It would be interesting to read what Harlan Sur of JPM thought of his meeting today with INTC. Micron's Stock Falls Again, But J.P. Morgan Affirms Bullish Stance -- MarketWatch 9:38 am ET January 10, 2018 (MarketWatch) Shares of Micron Technology Inc. (MU) dropped 2.3% in morning trade Wednesday, to extend the 5.7% tumble on heavy volume in the previous session, amid concerns over the announcement earlier this week that the memory-chip company and Intel Corp. (INTC) were ending their 3D NAND memory development partnership. J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur reiterated his overweight rating on Micron, saying investor concerns that Intel was trying to move into China may be overblown. Sur said investors had asked if Intel could license its 3D NAND technology to start-up memory chip companies in China: "While we do not know if Intel is indeed trying to license the technology, we believe Micron continues to have ownership rights to the developed technology for many years and any licensing agreement that Intel would enter into with a third party would have to be approved by Micron, and we believe Micron would be against doing such a deal." Intel shares slipped 0.2% in morning trade. Over the past three months, Micron's stock was little changed, Intel shares have rallied 9.8%, the PHLX Semiconductor Index has climbed 8.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 11%. -Tomi Kilgore