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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geewiz who wrote (25358)	1/11/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Art: With respect to AMAT, I expect another decline in their stock price in the near term. AMAT is a great company with excellent management, a solid balance sheet, world class technology, and clean financials. Unfortunately, their back order is massively (indeed almost exclusively) Asian based. Over the last few weeks, the cancellations, and cutbacks emanating from Asia with respect to semi production and semi plant construction/expansion has been substantial. It is inevitable that AMAT's back log is about to be flattened. The stock has not discounted this at all, hence another decline is likely. I agree with you that the current Asian situation is not another Mexico. This is a full-blown deflationary spiral, and it will not end until the excesses (debt and production capacity in particular) are purged. This is going to be very painful, and will carve this current over-valued market into shreds in the process. The nonsense emanating from CNBC makes me nauseous. Best, Earlie