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To: Dermot Burke who wrote (16008)	1/12/1998 2:11:00 AM
From: Charles Hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24154

>>>I would consider orcl stock as a long Easy, dude. I'm not sure this is the time to go long anything. ORCL is in hot water along with the rest of the db business, who are as a group going to only grow about 15-20% a year for quite a while if projections are true. Not the stuff of sky-high P/Es. Plus there may be some adjustments in revenue recognition there, if past is prologue. Besides that, the deflation snowball is progressing so fast that even Alan Greenspan woke up last week to it. The Fed will have to lower discount and fed funds rates and the market may get a pop from that, but the merde is hitting the fan all over the world right now, as disinflation bursts one bubble after another, usually to blow away the clouds of disinformation covering up the flakey national budgets and crooked corporate books and corruption. (A few bright commentators predicted at the 'end' of the cold war that corruption in democracies would be the next big crisis, and now I am scratching my head trying to remember who those writers were. I want to keep reading their stuff. Anybody know some names/pubs?) Some commentators are talking worldwide recession and resultant problems in the tech exports of all kinds. They may be wrong, but talk like that will not help. As of last week, my policy became: Take a deep breath, sell everything that hasn't been beaten down below asset value and doesn't have a credible short term Q4 earnings or other story, and think about government bonds. You think these interest rates are cheap, but you havn't seen anything yet. 50's mortgage rates could be just around the corner. Chaz