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To: Ian Davidson who wrote (14413)	1/11/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian, I have the highest respect for Abby Cohen, too. And that wouldn't change if her next prediction were wrong. Nobody's perfect. GM

To: Ian Davidson who wrote (14413)	1/11/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Ian and all, this is an anti-gloom-and-doom post. The Economist magazine compiled a very readable listing you'll enjoy (except for a few incorrigibles <G>). I very much recommend the article. economist.com Excerpts: Forecasters of scarcity and doom are not only invariably wrong, they think that being wrong proves them right [snip] In 1865 an influential book by Stanley Jevons argued with equally good logic and equally flawed premises that Britain would run out of coal in a few short years' time. In 1914, the United States Bureau of Mines predicted that American oil reserves would last ten years. In 1939 and again in 1951, the Department of the Interior said American oil would last 13 years. Wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong. [snip] Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute began predicting in 1973 that population would soon outstrip food production, and he still does so every time there is a temporary increase in wheat prices. In 1994, after 21 years of being wrong, he said: “After 40 years of record food production gains, output per person has reversed with unanticipated abruptness.” Two bumper harvests followed and the price of wheat fell to record lows. Yet Mr Brown's pessimism remains as impregnable to facts as his views are popular with newspapers. GM