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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (138294)	1/19/2018 1:57:34 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By Arran Yuan Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217906

... and you of course is familiar with the latest good news from suspect media to which we must salute, all-hail comrade zhou, well done :0) bloomberg.com Big News From China: Its Implosion Didn't Happen Somehow the nation once seen as a major swing factor has become the rock on which global growth depends. More stories by Daniel MossJanuary 19, 2018, 6:00 AM GMT+8 China by Daniel Moss Address your thank-you notes to Zhou Xiaochuan. Photographer: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images China's economic performance is all about what hasn't happened. That's huge. The world's No. 2 economy didn't implode under a mountain of debt, nor did trade tensions with the U.S. bring exports undone. And there certainly hasn't been the trade war many feared a year ago. The country's growing reliance on services and consumption as an engine of growth -- a little-understood phenomenon in the West -- wasn't reversed. Kudos. All of these non-events add up to a big deal: The place that accounts for more than a third of global growth is showing remarkable economic resilience and is even picking up a tad. That's in part a product of, part a contributor to, the synchronized global upswing we hear so much about. Gross domestic product rose 6.9 percent in 2017, up from 6.7 percent a year earlier. Things looked pretty good as the year drew to a close; GDP gained 6.8 percent in the final three months of the year. Sure, there are folks who say the numbers are cooked and that it's all just a matter of time before the Chinese model comes unglued. And it might happen. The figures do, to be fair, show a remarkable stability at the headline level, as my colleagues in Bloomberg Economics have pointed out. It's also true that China critics have been singing the same tune for a while now and the country hasn't collapsed. The worst hasn't come remotely close to passing. So China has gone from a swing factor in the global economic order something more like the rock underpinning the global outlook. A great reason for policymakers around the planet to fire off some thank-you notes before People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan's likely retirement this year. There are two lessons from all this. The first is that the global economy is an incredibly interconnected and complex place and can't just be undone by slogans like "the end of globalization" that were so trendy a year ago. The second is broader than economics: China puts experienced policy practitioners in charge, from the president's office on down. They do the hard work and don't rejoice in sowing chaos and confusion. As a result, China is a source of stability, not a threat to it. Acknowledging this is not the same as becoming a China cheerleader. China faces significant challenges, not least of which are environmental degradation along with an aging and shrinking workforce. But as one travels around the world and talks to policymakers, investors, and current and former officials, there is the unmistakable sense that China is on the rise and the West … well, "muddling through" is probably a charitable way to put it. Few serious people think that the U.S., a proxy for the West, is remotely capable at this juncture of launching something on the scale of the Belt and Road Initiative. More corrosive is an idea becoming fashionable that democracies just can't do big things any more. We'll see how that plays out. Declinism is rife throughout American history -- and yet the U.S. keeps bouncing back. Still, this moment does belong to China. Economics numbers like those we saw this week undergird that notion. On my wish list: stirrings of inflation. They'll have to come eventually. Want to bet they'll emanate from China? This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. To contact the author of this story: Daniel Moss at dmoss@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Philip Gray at philipgray@bloomberg.net Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE Daniel Moss writes and edits articles on economics for Bloomberg View. Previously he was executive editor of Bloomberg News for global economics, and has led teams in Asia, Europe and North America. Read more Follow @Moss_Eco on Twitter

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (138294)	1/19/2018 2:19:00 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217906

China is heading toward a debt crisis that will throw into question everything we think we know about its economy Pedro Nicolaci da Costa Jan. 15, 2018, 6:00 AM 42,191 China's economic stability is founded on a mountain of debt that Council on Foreign Relations experts warn will end in a crisis. The country's total non-financial sector debt, which includes household, corporate and government debt, will surge to nearly 300% of GDP by 2022, up from 242% in 2016.By some estimates, China’s true growth rate after taking the bad debt into account could be just half the official 6.9%. China’s worrisome build-up of corporate and household debt is well-documented, but fears of a financial crisis have receded sharply from the turbulent days of 2015 and 2016, when the country’s stock market crashed on fears that an epic two-decade growth streak might come to an abrupt halt. Since then, a proactive Chinese government and stronger-than-expected global economic growth have supported China’s economy and eased fears about a sharp imminent slowdown. Still, concerns about the country’s debt levels have only deepened. "In the short-run, growth, as defined by changes in gross domestic product (GDP), can be increased by more lending and investing," write Benn Steil and Benjamin Della Rocca of the Council of Foreign Relations in a new blogpost. "In the longer-term, however, lending and investing can’t boost GDP if it results in bad debt that is properly written down. The big question is how much bad debt China currently has, and how much more it will be producing in the years ahead." By some estimates, they add, China’s true growth rate, after taking the bad debt into account, is barely half the reported 6.9% clip. The country's total non-financial sector debt, which includes household, corporate and government debt, will surge to nearly 300% of GDP by 2022, up from 242% in 2016. Steil and Della Rocca examine recipients of the recent wave of lending to "gauge whether China has been creating good debt—debt that will produce positive returns—or bad." They find that profits at private-sector firms rose 18% between 2011 and 2016, while profits at state-owned enterprises that are far less efficient plunged 33%. At the same time, the share of corporate liability growth accounted for by the state sector soared from 59% in 2010 to 80% by 2016, as the chart below shows, a terrible omen for productivity. "Given the evidence that President Xi Jinping has abandoned any pretense of concern with NPLs, and our evidence that China is shoveling new loans to companies with the least ability to pay them back, we think China is heading towards a debt crisis," Steil and Della Rocca warn. Council on Foreign Relations

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (138294)	1/19/2018 4:19:28 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217906

HNA’s chief executive send staff memo urging austerity, skip 2018 Davos The chief executive officer of HNA Group Co., the Chinese conglomerate that’s under scrutiny because of its debt-fuelled acquisition spree and ballooning financing costs, has cancelled plans to attend next week’s World Economic Forum’s annual meeting, people familiar with the matter said. http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2129678/hnas-chief-executive-skip-2018-davos-meeting-amid-staff-memo

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (138294)	1/19/2018 4:24:48 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217906

From where China copied OBOR? Don't tell TJ, I study history...

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (138294)	1/19/2018 4:38:26 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217906

the belt ... admiral zheng he, circa 1400s the road ... bit more ancient, before marco became polo but do not tell elmat :0)

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (138294)	1/20/2018 3:15:04 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217906

here is something that does matter to the hong kong share market perhaps whatever develops would tee-up a hiccup buying moment which we all can use elmat was the one who predicted so many months ago that trump would hiccup china export it would have done the elmat some good had he eased off of the economist magazine, and raised his head to stare at and appreciate the obvious watch & brief, for it is amusing and potentially useful zerohedge.com Tax Reform And Trump's Chinese Trade Deficit Conundrum Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, Most things come easier said than done. Take President Trump’s posture on trade with China... Trump doesn’t want a bigger trade deficit with China. He wants a smaller trade deficit with China. In fact, reducing the trade deficit with China is one of Trump’s promises to Make America Great Again. In May 2016, he even told a campaign crowd: *“We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country and that’s what they’re doing. It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world.”* Yet as Trump approaches the conclusion of his first year in office, he’s achieved the exact opposite of what he said. The trade deficit with China hasn’t gotten smaller. It has gotten bigger. Actually, it has gotten a lot bigger. For example, the U.S. trade deficit with China from January through November 2017 was approximately $342 billion. Over this same period in 2016, the trade deficit with China was $317.4 billion. This amounts to a 7.7 percent widening of the U.S. trade deficit with China that has occurred on Trump’s watch. *What gives? Is China better at manipulating its currency than the U.S.? Does China somehow outplay the U.S. when it comes to both trade strategy and strategery?* Certainly, The Donald will get to the bottom of it… Unintended ConsequencesEarlier this week President Trump called up Chinese President Xi Jinping to have a frank phone conversation on the matter. From what we gather, Trump “expressed disappointment that the United States’ trade deficit has continued to grow.” We don’t know what Jinping said in response. But what he could’ve said was, “Donald, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!” One of the unintended consequences of increasing the budget deficit to pay for the GOP tax reform bill is that it also increases the trade deficit. In other words, the budget imbalance between taxes and government expenditures has a direct impact on foreign trade imbalances. In an article published in Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, economist Ralph W. Huenemann explains: “In 2016, the American government budgets carried a fiscal deficit of $865 billion, and the balance of payments showed a trade deficit of $521 billion. A surplus of private savings (including substantial retained corporate profits) of about $344 billion over investment partially offset the budget deficit, but as long as there is such a massive deficit on government budgets, the net inflow of imports will continue. This is inherent in the nature of national income. No President, Donald Trump or any other, can change this reality without tackling the government budget deficit.” So if Trump doesn’t want a trade deficit with China then he needs to reduce the government’s budget deficit. However, reducing the government’s budget deficit is near impossible under the new GOP tax reform bill. Hence, President Trump is left with a weak hand of bluster. Tax Reform and Trump’s Chinese Trade Deficit ConundrumThis week Reuters released parts of its exclusive interview with President Trump. On the prospect of a trade war with China, Trump remarked that he hopes a trade war won’t ensue, “But if there is, there is.” Trump also commented that any change in China’s purchases of U.S. Treasuries would not hurt the U.S. economy. This is because, according to Trump, “everybody wants to buy Treasuries.” Let’s hope Trump knows what he’s talking about. At the moment, China and Japan account for one-third of all foreign-held Treasuries. However, China has currently tapered back its Treasury holdings to a four month low. And Japan has reduced its Treasury holdings to a four year low. But maybe Trump’s right. Maybe China and Japan don’t matter. Maybe someone else – like the Swiss National Bank – will pick up the slack that’s needed to finance Trump’s deficit. Still, what would this get him? It wouldn’t address his trade deficit conundrum; rather, it would make it worse. The point is attempting to spend a nation to prosperity using borrowed money is not without consequences. In the short run, an illusion of wealth can be erected. In the long run, the illusion slips into decay and disrepair at the precise moment the bill comes due. This is one of the tradeoffs of deficit spending based government stimulus that politicians fail to mention when promising free lunches. Any economic boost that deficit financed tax reform delivers will be short-lived. Quite frankly, such a contrived economic boost is akin to burning one’s furniture to stay warm. The heat it produces feels good while it lasts. But once the furniture’s all burned up, it’s game over.

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (138294)	6/21/2018 3:58:41 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217906

Sucked in by the promises of Owen Wong – a man who claimed to represent a company called Sanda Youth International – the group thought they would be taking up a position to teach English as a foreign language to local children. 50 South Africans who fell prey to a work visa scam in China will not receive any financial help from their own government. That’s according to the parents who are fighting tooth and nail to get their children home. China visa scam: SA government won’t give financial relief to stranded teachers Fifty South Africans stuck in the Asian country have been stung by fraudulent work offers. https://www.thesouthafrican.com/china-visa-scam-no-financial-help-sa-gov/

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (138294)	8/5/2018 2:35:39 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217906

Cracks appear in 'invincible' Xi Jinping's authority over China Intellectuals voice criticism as analysts point to disharmony in the Communist party Rumours have swirled in Beijing in recent weeks that China’s seemingly invincible leader, Xi Jinping, is in trouble, dogged by a protracted trade war with the US, a slowing economy and a public health scandal involving thousands of defective vaccines given to children. Xi’s name seemed to have disappeared for a while from the cover of the People’s Daily, replaced with articles about his deputy, Li Keqiang, and large portraits of him were said to have been taken down after a young woman filmed herself throwing ink at his image. No. 1 will rest while Ocean takes over the military Cryptic slogan on internetOn 13 July, online reports claimed there was gunfire in central Beijing as a coup unfolded. A cryptic slogan emerged online: “No. 1 will rest while Ocean takes over the military,” a reference to a rival politician taking power. For now, Xi remains in full control of the government and party, and mentions of him in state-run media are as frequent as ever, but the hearsay is a sign all is not right with China’s most powerful leader in decades. “Such rumours may well lack credibility, but they do offer some indication that the disharmony within China’s party elite is increasing ,” the Hong Kong political analyst Lee Yee wrote in in the online journal China Heritage. This week, an essay by a law professor at Tsinghua University, one of the country’s top schools, made the rounds on Chinese social media. The essay - Our dread now and our hopes - by Xu Zhangrun offered one of the most direct criticisms of the Chinese government under Xi’s direction. Referring to Xi only as “that official”, Xu accused him of reversing years of reforms, effectively returning China to an era of totalitarian politics and a style of dictatorship last seen under Mao Zedong. “After 40 years of reform, overnight we’re back to the ancien régime,” he wrote, calling for the return of term limits, abolished under Xi earlier this year, the rehabilitation of those punished for the 4 June pro-democracy protests crushed by the government and an end to the cult of personality surrounding Xi. “The party is going to great lengths to create a new idol, and in the process it is offering up to the world an image of China as modern totalitarianism,” he wrote. Xu is one among several intellectuals voicing dissent. Zi Zhongyun, an international politics scholar, blamed the US-China trade war on the Xi administration’s failure to implement reforms in an article in June. Wenguang Sun, a retired professor at Shandong University published an essay in July urging Xi to stop spending money abroad on projects such as the Belt and Road initiative, and spend it at home instead. “For the first time since Xi Jinping gained power in 2012, he is facing a pushback from within the party, from liberal intellectuals and so forth,” said Willy Lam, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation and adjunct professor at the Center for China Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. The pushback is also emerging in other ways. A group of alumni from Tsinghua published an open letter on Wednesday calling for the sacking of a professor over his claims China had emerged as the world’s top superpower. Hu Angang, who claimed in a series of speeches that China had surpassed the US in economic strength and technological know-how, is one of many who have echoed Xi’s claims that China has entered a new era of power on the world stage, reversing his predecessors’ more muted global aspirations. “[Hu] misleads government policy, confuses the public, causes other countries to be overly cautious about China and for neighbours to be afraid of China. Overall, it does harm to the country and its people,” the former students said, according to images of the letter posted online. Such criticism is an indirect rebuke of Xi’s more assertive foreign policy, and comes as his opponents use economic troubles and failed trade negotiations with the US as pretext to question him, according to analysts. That dissent, while very unlikely to push Xi from power, could impede what had appeared to be his absolute hold over the party and the government. “His position is safe,” Lam said. “It’s just his authority has been dented to some extent. His authority has suffered.”